The Candidate Who Couldn’t Close: How Ken Paxton’s Baggage Helped Sink the Texas GOP
For three decades, Republicans treated November in Texas as a formality.
On Tuesday, that assumption collapsed, and a large share of the wreckage landed at the feet of the man at the top of the ticket.
Democrat James Talarico beat Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate by roughly 55% to 43% a margin of more than a million votes in unofficial returns. He is the first Texas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1988.
A rout, not a squeaker
Paxton wasn’t the only Republican to fall.
Democrats won every statewide executive office on the ballot, including governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, and flipped the Texas House. Gov. Greg Abbott, who had one of the largest campaign war chests in state history, conceded to Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
No Democrat had won statewide in Texas since 1994.
It would be unfair to pin all of that on one man, and one really shouldn’t. But a candidate sets the tone for a ticket, and Paxton’s was a ticket-wide liability.
The baggage he carried
Voters weren’t discovering Paxton’s history for the first time. They were being asked to ignore it:
- Felony securities fraud indictment (2015). It followed him for years before ending without a trial conviction.
- Impeachment by the Texas House (2023). Charges centered on allegations that he used his office to help a donor, Nate Paul. The Texas Senate acquitted him, but only two Republicans voted to convict on any article.
- Whistleblower retaliation. A judge ruled in 2025 that the former aides were improperly fired and awarded them $6.6 million. Paxton dropped his appeal shortly after launching his Senate bid.
- Alleged infidelity. At the impeachment trial, his former chief of staff testified that Paxton admitted to an affair. His lawyers did not dispute it and argued it was irrelevant. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in 2025 on “biblical grounds,” citing adultery. Paxton generally denied her allegations in court.
- Unexplained wealth. A large rise in his net worth that was never explained.
Paxton was never convicted of anything, and the Justice Department declined to prosecute the corruption allegations. But the question in a general election isn’t whether a candidate beat the rap. It’s whether persuadable voters trust him.
Many didn’t.
Even Republicans said so
The sharpest criticism came from inside the party.
Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton beat in the primary runoff, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that Texas conservatives and independents were asked to swallow an “almost comical list of personal scandals.”
U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, who has worked for both men, argued that nominating an impeached and indicted candidate and then pouring in hundreds of millions of dollars could not make voters believe in him.
The chair of the Texas Young Republican Federation called Paxton a terrible candidate and a drag on the ballot, saying longtime GOP primary voters had told him they couldn’t vote for him.
Money couldn’t fix it
Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September, and the group moved the same amounts to Texas PAC, which backed Paxton, within a day of each donation. Musk also gave $10 million to a separate pro-Paxton super PAC. Texas PAC reported more than $100 million in pro-Paxton and anti-Talarico spending. (Reporting noted that the transfers weren’t necessarily Musk’s own dollars, since the super PAC was soliciting other donors too.) Trump’s super PAC added $10 million.
It didn’t matter. Talarico led in most polls for months, and the money never closed the gap.
The Trump problem
Paxton hitched his wagon to Donald Trump, who endorsed him against Cornyn and then campaigned for him three times in a month. But Trump’s support came with digs. He told a White House audience that people might not love Paxton’s look or television interviews, and at the Dallas midterm convention said he didn’t “really like the way he looks.”
(Trump also called Paxton “the greatest attorney general in the history of our country.”) Leaked audio then caught Paxton privately complaining to donors that the Trump-centered convention had hurt Republican numbers.
That is not an alliance that builds a bigger tent. It’s a candidate who needed the base’s enthusiasm and the center’s trust and got a lukewarm version of the first and little of the second.
A campaign that never pivoted
The tenor of Paxton’s general-election campaign changed little from his primary run, apart from a tax-break-focused economic pitch and data center proposals. Supporters at his final rally were still cheering his fight against the establishment.
That worked in a GOP primary. It was a weak message for the independents and former Cornyn voters he needed.
What the other side says
Fairness requires the counter-argument, and it’s a serious one.
Defenders of Paxton point out that this was a national wave.
Exit polling found 60% of voters disapproved of Trump, and Republicans also lost Senate races in red states like Iowa and South Carolina. A spokesman for a pro-Paxton super PAC argued the Iran war and economic frustration overwhelmed any candidate’s personal brand, and noted that even Abbott, long among the most popular governors in the country, lost.
Many Republicans, including Cornyn, blame Trump’s unpopularity and policies at least as much as Paxton. Trump himself blamed Abbott. And Paxton was never convicted of any crime and won three statewide races before this one.
The honest read is probably both: a terrible national environment and a nominee who made it worse.
Paxton didn’t cause the wave.
He made sure Texas Republicans had no way to ride it out.
Sources:
- KPRC/Click2Houston, “Ken Paxton concedes Texas U.S. Senate race to James Talarico,” Nov. 3-4, 2026. https://www.click2houston.com/decision-2026/2026/11/04/ken-paxton-concedes-texas-us-senate-race-to-james-talarico/
- Breitbart, “Blue Tsunami Hits Texas,” Nov. 4, 2026 (unofficial Texas Secretary of State figures). https://www.breitbart.com/border/2026/11/04/blue-tsunami-hits-texas-massive-urban-turnout-enables-democrats-sweep-statewide-executive-offices-state-house-senate-remains-red/
- Texas Tribune via KSAT, “After historic rout, Texas Republicans train fire on Trump, Paxton and each other,” Nov. 4, 2026. https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2026/11/04/after-historic-rout-texas-republicans-train-fire-on-trump-paxton-and-each-other-in-search-for-answers/
- KSAT, “Democrats seize power in Texas, ending decades of GOP dominance,” Nov. 4, 2026. https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2026/11/04/democrats-seize-power-in-texas-ending-decades-of-gop-dominance/
- WSBT/Scripps, “Hinojosa defeats Abbott, becomes first Democratic Texas governor since 1995.” https://wsbt.com/news/nation-world/gov-greg-abbott-to-watch-election-day-results-in-austin
- CNN via KRDO, “Ken Paxton’s controversies take center stage in his Texas Senate matchup with James Talarico.” https://krdo.com/?p=1728551
- Texas Tribune via HPPR, “From an indictment to an alleged affair, Ken Paxton’s controversies hang over his Texas Senate bid,” June 2026. https://www.hppr.org/hppr-news/2026-06-23/from-an-indictment-to-an-alleged-affair-ken-paxtons-controversies-hang-over-his-texas-senate-bid
- Texas Tribune, “Texas Ken Paxton, James Talarico Senate election scandals,” June 22, 2026. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/22/texas-ken-paxton-james-talarico-senate-election-scandals/
- Boston Globe, “Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate scandals,” May 27, 2026. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/05/27/nation/ken-paxton-texas-senate-scandals/
- ABC17 News (whistleblower judgment and dropped appeal). https://abc17news.com/?p=1619293
- Texas Tribune via KSAT, “Elon Musk is the donor behind Senate Republicans’ massive rescue mission for Ken Paxton,” Oct. 15, 2026. https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2026/10/15/elon-musk-is-the-donor-behind-senate-republicans-massive-rescue-mission-for-ken-paxton/
- CBS News, “Elon Musk donates over $150 million to Senate GOP group, assisting Ken Paxton.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-midterm-donations-texas-ken-paxton/
- CNN via KEYT, “Musk has started spending money to help Ken Paxton,” Sept. 5, 2026 (Trump super PAC spending). https://keyt.com/politics/cnn-us-politics/2026/09/05/musk-has-started-spending-money-to-help-ken-paxton-will-it-help-change-the-course-of-the-texas-senate-race/
- Washington Examiner, “Trump trashes Paxton’s appearance after vowing to campaign for him in Texas,” Sept. 2, 2026. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/?p=4711137
- The Daily Wire, “Trump calls GOP candidate ‘pain in the s’ but says America needs him badly.” https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-calls-gop-candidate-pain-in-the-ss-but-says-america-needs-him-badly
- Newsweek, “Trump: Paxton ‘a little bit controversial'” (leaked audio, rally remarks). https://www.newsweek.com/trump-paxton-little-bit-controversial-talarico-texas-senate-12575705
- Reuters via Devdiscourse, “Trump rallies for Paxton in third Texas trip in a month,” Oct. 8, 2026. https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3988649-trump-rallies-for-paxton-in-third-texas-trip-in-a-month-as-republicans-defend-stronghold
- Associated Press via ADN, “Trump, GOP point fingers after getting shellacked in the midterms,” Nov. 4, 2026 (NORC exit survey). https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/11/04/republicans-wake-up-to-a-new-reality-and-brace-for-a-new-washington/
Spurred by a seismic shift in state politics following Tuesday’s midterms, Texas municipal leaders are moving aggressively to roll back years of strict local cooperation with federal immigration authorities.
Leading the charge, Houston Mayor John Whitmire signed an executive order directing local police to cease contacting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during nonviolent and non-jailable incidents, effectively dismantling standing enforcement routines built under state mandate SB 4.
Whitmire explicitly cited the election results—which saw Democrats take key statewide offices—as the catalyst, declaring that state-level pressure to enforce aggressive federal detainers is no longer a priority for incoming leadership. The rapid policy pivot signals a major rift between Texas urban centers and federal immigration enforcement ahead of the upcoming legislative transition.
Mayor Kirk Watson is asking Police Chief Lisa Davis to update the department’s general orders to keep officers focused on local public safety.
Three San Antonio City Council members are calling for a special meeting to limit the city’s cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Austin police are investigating the shooting of a 62-year-old man Thursday morning in the city.
APD responded to multiple calls of a shooting at the Circle K Gas station located at 3909 Guadalupe St. One of the complainants stated he had shot someone. APD officers, along with other first responders, arrived on scene and located a Black male, later identified as Bruce Williams, on the ground with apparent gunshot wounds. Williams was transported to the hospital and later pronounced deceased at 11:48 a.m.
The Austin Police Department’s Commercial Burglary & Metal (CBM) unit initiated an investigation in August 2026 regarding serial copper thefts in Northeast Austin. Authorities identified two suspects implicated in multiple attempted thefts of heavy-gauge copper communication cables, which were extracted by using vehicles to forcibly collapse wooden utility poles.
Austin’s latest report on efforts to manage homeless encampments found that most sites cleared by city crews don’t stay that way: Nearly three-quarters saw some return activity after cleanup. (Austin American-Statesman via MSN)
A 21-year-old Austin man has been sentenced for using several social media platforms to entice and extort minor male victims. (FOX 7 Austin)
WEATHER
FRIDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
The guys recap the wildest week of all as Democrats nearly sweep the state and Republicans see their 30-year reign evaporate in an instant.
In a seismic shift, Gov. Greg Abbott and every other statewide Republican on the ballot were all shown the door this week by Texas voters.
Stick around for the end of the show for a parting message to Abbott.
Before that, Harvey drops in to give his thoughts on how we got here and what might happen next.
Plus, Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa hints at what’s coming next year as she introduced the team who will help her make the transition to the Texas Governor’s Mansion and lawmakers from both parties have coalesced around Dean Senfronia Thompson of Houston to be the next Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives.
(Episode from November 7, 2026)
A historic blue wave has swept across the country, turning longtime Republican strongholds like Texas blue and reshaping the political landscape following the 2026 midterm elections.
On this week’s episode of Party Politics, co-hosts Brandon Rottinghaus and Jeronimo Cortina break down the stunning Democratic victories, including James Talarico’s U.S. Senate win, Gina Hinojosa’s gubernatorial victory, and Democrats gaining control of both chambers of congress. The hosts examine whether the election was a referendum on President Donald Trump, with concerns over the economy, immigration, foreign policy and Republican culture-war policies contributing to the Democratic surge.
In Texas, Rottinghaus and Cortina discuss the changing electorate, the return of Latino voters to the Democratic coalition and how the GOP’s redistricting strategy failed to deliver its intended results. They also explore what comes next for Texas Republicans, whether Democrats can maintain their newfound political power and what the election could mean for the 2028 presidential race.
NATIONAL TOPICS: A historic blue tsunami sweeps across midterm elections nationwide. Are the election results a referendum on President Donald Trump.
TEXAS TOPICS: Democrats take Congress and flip Texas. Why did Texas turn blue? The new Democratic coalition. Redistricting in Texas backfires. Are we seeing a political realignment? Could Talarico put his hat in the ring for vice president in 2028?
(Episode from November 7, 2026)
In one night, voters changed everything in Texas.
On this episode of the Texas Take, host Jeremy Wallace teams up with the Austin American-Statesman’s John Moritz and The Dallas Morning News’ Gromer Jeffers to unpack a historic election that transforms the Lone Star State’s politics for years to come. They dig into how Democrat Gina Hinojosa became the first Latina governor in state history and James Talarico the first Democratic U.S. senator in more than 30 years. The trio examines how Republican missteps, surging Black and Latino turnout, and a failed redistricting gamble ended decades of Republican dominance—and what comes next.
(Episode from November 7, 2026)
Go behind the scenes of the 2026 midterm election night in Austin, Texas. This episode features speeches from Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico, interviews with attendees, and footage from local watch parties.
Democratic state Rep. Senfronia Thompson of Houston says she has secured enough support from lawmakers to become the first woman to serve as speaker of the Texas House. The 87-year-old lawmaker, who has served for more than 50 years, made the announcement after Democrats reportedly won control of the chamber in Tuesday’s election.
Democratic Texas Lt. Governor-Elect Vikki Goodwin discusses her victory over Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. “I think it was that a lot of Texans felt like they weren’t being heard or listened to by their current state leadership,” Goodwin told Jack Fink. “They felt like it was time for a change of leadership.”
Newly-elected Texas lawmakers are promising big changes to public education in Texas, but a longtime educator says real change will take time.
SPORTS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: With their SEC Championship standings and College Football Playoff aspirations hanging in the balance, the No. 7 Texas Longhorns head into Faurot Field today needing a mandatory road victory over No. 18 Missouri in a high-stakes battle between 6–2 conference foes.
TEXAS A&M / TEXAS TECH/ TEXAS STATE / HOUSTON
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Here are the primary final scores from the Austin-area high school football slate from last night—the regular season finale (Week 11) before the UIL playoffs launch next week:
Key Austin-Area Final Scores (Friday, Nov 6, 2026)
| Matchup | Final Score | Details / Highlights |
| Westlake vs. Stony Point | Westlake 68, Stony Point 33 | Westlake’s offense put up big numbers to close out the regular season with a win. |
| Hutto vs. Vandegrift | Hutto 49, Vandegrift 10 | Hutto delivered a decisive win over Vandegrift in their regular season finale. |
| Lake Travis vs. Westwood | Lake Travis 58, Westwood 0 | Lake Travis completed a dominant shutout to head into the postseason. |
| Bowie vs. Johnson | Bowie 31, Johnson 0 | Bowie posted a clean sheet win over Johnson. |
| Anderson vs. Lehman | Anderson 56, Lehman 10 | Anderson powered past Lehman with a strong offensive output. |
| Cedar Ridge vs. Round Rock | Cedar Ridge 35, Round Rock 32 | Cedar Ridge edged out Round Rock in a close thriller. |
| Lockhart vs. Cedar Creek | Lockhart 49, Cedar Creek 7 | Lockhart rolled over Cedar Creek. |
| Canyon Lake vs. LBJ Austin | Canyon Lake 50, LBJ Austin 40 | A high-scoring shootout at Nelson Field went to Canyon Lake. |
| Boerne-Champion vs. Manor | Boerne-Champion 49, Manor 7 | Boerne-Champion controlled the tempo to seal the win. |
| Weiss vs. Pflugerville Connally | Weiss 62, Connally 0 | Weiss closed out the regular season with a blowout victory. |
| Taylor vs. Travis | Taylor 54, Travis 27 | Taylor took care of business against Travis. |
(Note: East View also defeated Rouse 31-0 in Thursday night action to kick off the final week of games).
MLS: Austin FC wraps up its 2026 season with a home game on tonight against Portland Timbers. The match is set for a 6:00 p.m. CT kickoff at Q2 Stadium. (Austin FC)
NBA: Victories for both the Mavericks and Spurs last night.
Victor Wembanyama had 29 points and 10 rebounds and the San Antonio Spurs beat the Sacramento Kings 130-103 on Tuesday night for their first home victory of the season. San Antonio has won seven straight. (Associated Press)
Cooper Flagg scored 21 points and Kyrie Irving added 14 after a sluggish first half for both stars as the Dallas Mavericks beat the Utah Jazz 112-100 in an NBA Cup game Friday night. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE
The Houston Rockets return to action tonight as do the Spurs. The Mavericks are off today.
NHL: The Dallas Stars return home to the American Airlines Center tonight to face off against the San Jose Sharks, looking to bounce back following a tight 2–1 road loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM CST, kicking off a four-game homestand in Dallas.
They say the headless horseman of South Texas still rides the range. El Muerto, a horse thief, met the wrong Texas Ranger, and some folks swear his spirit never left.
Here’s the thing: the King Ranch is still a working ranch with 35,000 head of cattle, and the headquarters is just three miles from Kingsville. We tour the Santa Gertrudis herd, visit the memorial to Triple Crown winner Assault, and meet the families who came with Captain King. Then we hop on a nature tour for osprey, caracaras, javelinas, an alligator, and the green jay, the official bird of Kingsville. Over 360 species and counting.
