Election Day in Texas: A Record Turnout, a Razor-Thin Senate Race, and an Austin Ballot Full of Questions
Texans have been voting in numbers this state has never seen in a midterm. More than 7.7 million people had already cast ballots when early voting closed Friday, roughly 40% of registered voters, and the 2018 record of about 4.9 million early votes is far behind.
Now comes the part that actually decides things.
Here is what to know before the polls close tonight.
The final day on the trail
Democrats came home to Austin. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate and an Austin-area state representative, ended his “Friday Night Lights”-themed tour at Stubb’s BBQ, sharing the stage with gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.
Hundreds packed the outdoor venue. Talarico, hoarse after dozens of stops, urged supporters to leave everything on the field and cast the race as working families against billionaire money, with the line that Texas is not for sale.
Republicans worked the Houston area, then split up. Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee, rallied together in the Houston area Monday, both pitching their party as the party of “common sense” and describing their Democratic opponents as a radical departure.
Abbott closed in San Antonio. Paxton traveled to Allen, in his home base of Collin County, after scrapping a planned Alamo appearance, and will hold his election-night event in Dallas.
Republicans are contending with voter frustration over gas prices, an unpopular war with Iran and the administration’s immigration crackdown.
Money has been a story all its own.
More than half a billion dollars has been spent on the Senate race, including nearly $190 million from Elon Musk in support of Paxton, alongside record fundraising by Talarico.
What the polls say
The headline: Talarico has led or tied in most recent public polling, usually by a few points, and often inside the margin of error.
Libertarian Ted Brown draws 1–3% in these surveys.
The governor’s race looks different.
Abbott leads Hinojosa 50%–47% in the Texas Southern poll and by about 4 points in Emerson’s survey. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the Senate race a toss-up and the governor’s race “likely Republican”.
How much stock should we put in them?
Some, but with real humility.
- Most leads are within the error. A 2–3 point edge with a roughly 3-point margin of error is a statistical tie, and the margin applies to each candidate’s number separately. Only the NYT/Siena result sits clearly outside its margin.
- Texas polling has missed in both directions. Per Newsweek’s review, polls understated the Democrat in 2018, were very close in 2022 (the final UT poll had Abbott up 11; he won by 10.9), and understated the Republican Senate margin in 2020 and 2024. There is no reliable single direction of error to correct for.
- Likely-voter models are hard in a record-turnout year. Pollsters have to guess who shows up. When turnout jumps this much, those guesses matter more.
- Paxton-specific caution. Newsweek notes that Republican reluctance about Paxton in summer polling has previously been larger than the actual defection on Election Day, a warning against reading too much into soft GOP numbers. On the other side, UT’s August poll found Republican enthusiasm well below 2022 levels (39% “extremely enthusiastic,” down from 52%).
- Early voting is a modest predictor. Travis County’s own coverage cautions that high early turnout alone doesn’t establish a Democratic wave.
Is the “blue wave” really coming?
Nationally, the signals are strong. Democrats have held a generic-ballot lead all year, Decision Desk HQ gives them better than an 80% chance at the House, and Cook projects 227–240 Democratic seats. But mid-decade redistricting, including in Texas, shrank the number of competitive seats. Cook estimates the new maps could net Republicans about four seats before voting even starts. Forecasters are openly debating whether this is a ripple, a wave or a tsunami.
In Texas, a “wave” is a higher bar than a “win.” No Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and Democrats haven’t won statewide at all since 1994.
What Democrats need at once: very high Democratic turnout, a historic break of independents, and softer Republican turnout. The independents piece looks promising in some polls (Talarico leads among independents in the Texas Southern poll, 54%–38%), while Abbott’s lead suggests many Texans may split their tickets.
A fair reading: this is the most competitive Texas cycle in a generation, the Senate race is truly a coin flip with a slight Democratic polling edge, and a statewide sweep would be a bigger leap than a single close win.
Could there be surprises tonight?
Yes. Analysts at the Texas Tribune and NPR flagged these as the places to look:
- Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties. Together about 16% of the 2024 vote. A comfortable Talarico win in Tarrant would be a good sign for him; a close result would help Paxton.
- Latino voters. Beto O’Rourke won 64% of Latino voters in 2018. Talarico needs to beat that in places like Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb and Bexar. The Rio Grande Valley swung hard to Trump in 2024, so watch whether it swings back.
- The Abbott–Paxton gap. In 2018, Cruz ran about 400,000 votes behind Abbott and still won. If Paxton trails Abbott by more than that, Talarico is in business.
- Harris County. Can Talarico reach 60%?
- The Libertarian and undervote. Voters who dislike both major candidates have a third option, and a few points could matter in a race this tight.
- Rural Texas. If it holds near Cruz-level margins for Paxton, that’s a good sign for him.
- Down-ballot. Congressional seats like TX-15 and TX-35 are rated toss-ups; TX-23 leans Republican.
The votes counted and posted Tuesday night are unofficial until county canvasses are complete.
Austin: five council seats, two bonds, eight charter amendments
Austin voters face 15 city items.
City Council
| District | Race | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (East/Northeast) | Open seat; Natasha Harper-Madison is term-limited. Six candidates: Alexandria Anderson, Amber Goodwin, Misael Ramos, Steven Brown, Michael Nahas, Portia Riggins | Most crowded race; candidates have few major policy differences [29][30] |
| 3 (Southeast) | Incumbent José Velásquez vs. Gavin Fernandez Jr., Eduardo “Lalito” Romero, Neha Shah, Brock Skinner | Challengers criticize his support for the Dog’s Head development anchored by Amazon’s robotics division [30][31] |
| 5 (South/Zilker area) | Incumbent Ryan Alter vs. David Weinberg, Liz Brink, Farrah Abraham | Test of voter frustration over spending, taxes and homelessness [29][30] |
| 8 (Southwest) | Open seat. Selena Xie vs. Jeffery Bowen | Paige Ellis fell 62 signatures short of qualifying for a third term [29][30] |
| 9 (Central) | Incumbent Zo Qadri vs. Rich Heyman, Katie Kam and others | Seen as a referendum on density in older neighborhoods [30][32] |
This is the first Austin election since voters rejected the 2025 property-tax-rate measure, Proposition Q, so affordability and city spending run through every race.
With crowded fields, a runoff is possible in some districts; the city has scheduled a runoff candidate panel for Nov. 23 “if needed”.
Voters in District 8 are choosing between two candidates in an open race that could shape day-to-day life in Southwest Austin for the next four years.
Proposition I: the audit fight
What it does. Prop I would amend the City Charter to require an independent “affordability and efficiency” review every five years and before any tax-rate-increase election. The outside contractor must identify savings that exceed its own fee. The first review would be due within a year.
Who’s behind it. Save Austin Now, a PAC co-founded by former Travis County Republican chair Matt Mackowiak, gathered more than 21,000 signatures. The measure was written by attorney and former county judge Bill Aleshire.
The case for. Supporters argue a charter amendment can’t be quietly undone by a future council the way an ordinance can, and say independent scrutiny would improve transparency.
The case against. Mayor Kirk Watson, six of the ten council members who attended a rally, U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, labor and community groups oppose it, calling it Austin’s version of DOGE and warning it could push recommendations to cut libraries, parks and public health. They also note the city already approved its own review: a $5.2 million contract with Public Works LLC, repeated every three years. The Statesman editorial board urged a “no”. Aleshire rejects the DOGE comparison, saying auditors would be professionals in the field.
What to watch. There is no public polling on Prop I.
Prop Q’s 63% rejection is the closest benchmark, and Aleshire says Save Austin Now’s polling suggests about 40% of Democrats opposed it.
Prop I would need to win over some of those voters plus independents. Proposition G, also on the ballot, would send future citizen-initiated charter measures to even-year November elections.
The bonds
Proposition A is a $260 million parks bond and Proposition B a $35 million library bond, which together form the $295 million package on the ballot a year after Prop Q’s defeat.
Turnout so far
2026 figure is “more than 450,000” per KUT; other outlets reported slightly lower tallies earlier in the weekend.
Travis County early turnout topped 48% of registered voters, among the highest in the state, and Williamson, Collin and Tarrant were near 48–49%. Travis expanded to 45 early sites, and Election Day offers 201 locations, the most since the county ended precinct-based voting.
Results from early voting should start rolling out after polls close at 7 p.m. It will be hours before all races are called. (Texas Tribune)
The ATX Aggregator will be live blogging updates throughout the day today and into tonight.
Election Day is here, with control of Congress hinging on unexpectedly competitive races in states including Iowa, Arkansas and Mississippi.
President Trump sounded unusually subdued in his final campaign appearance, acknowledging the historical odds against the president’s party in midterm elections.
Iran has spent months using the Strait of Hormuz and high gas prices to pressure President Trump back toward negotiations, but Election Day could instead mark the start of another round of war.
Local voting information
- Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. today
- Check wait times. Travis County election officials recommend checking the Travis County Elections website before heading out, since lines ran up to two hours on the last day of early voting.
- Your polling place, ID requirements, and every other voting rule: Use official sources. The City of Austin’s voter page is at https://www.austintexas.gov/voterinfo, and the Texas Secretary of State’s election page is at https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/index.shtml.
Sources:
- Houston Chronicle, “Texas early voting matches 2018 pace, on track for record 2026 midterm turnout” — https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/election/2026/article/early-voting-turnout-22506417.php
- Austin American-Statesman, “James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa bring Democrats’ closing message home to Austin” — https://www.statesman.com/news/politics/elections/article/talarico-hinojosa-rally-22502684.php
- KXAN, “Talarico to make last campaign stop in Austin on the eve of election night” — https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/talarico-to-make-last-campaign-stop-in-austin-on-the-eve-of-election-night/
- Texas Tribune via KSAT, “Ken Paxton and James Talarico close their Senate campaigns on home turf” — https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2026/11/03/ken-paxton-and-james-talarico-close-their-senate-campaigns-on-home-turf/
- FOX 4, “Talarico, Paxton make final pitches to Texas voters ahead of Election Day” — https://www.fox4news.com/news/talarico-paxton-make-final-pitches-texas-voters-ahead-election-day
- Houston Chronicle, “Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton push ‘common sense’ message in final Houston-area rallies” — https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/article/greg-abbott-ken-paxton-final-election-rallies-22506104.php
- Texas Tribune, “Paxton and Talarico close campaigns” (election-eve report) — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/02/texas-senate-ken-paxton-james-talarico-2026-election-day-eve/
- KXAN (see 3).
- Newsweek, “What Record-Breaking Texas Early Voting Says About Talarico vs. Paxton Race” — https://www.newsweek.com/what-record-breaking-texas-early-voting-says-about-the-talarico-vs-paxton-race-12622094
- Newsweek, “James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton—What Final Texas Polls Show” — https://www.newsweek.com/james-talaricos-chances-beating-ken-paxton-final-texas-polls-show-12648344
- FOX 7 Austin, Emerson College poll coverage — https://www.fox7austin.com/news/talarico-paxton-texas-senate-race-emerson-poll
- Axios Austin, “Poll: Democrats hold slight edge in Texas races” (UT/Texas Politics Project) — https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/10/14/texas-poll-talarico-paxton-senate
- ABC13 Houston live updates (Texas Southern University poll) — https://abc13.com/live-updates/2026-midterm-election-early-voting-starts-monday-runs-oct-30-texas/19850056/
- FOX 4, “Texas races down to the wire as candidates campaign across the state” — https://www.fox4news.com/news/texas-races-down-wire-candidates-campaign-across-state
- Yahoo News, “Final poll sets stage for Texas Senate race before Election Day” (NYT/Siena) — https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/final-poll-sets-stage-texas-175053810.html
- Newsweek, “James Talarico and Ken Paxton in dead heat” (Cook, Sabato ratings) — https://newsweek.com/james-talarico-and-ken-paxton-in-dead-heat-in-razor-tight-texas-senate-race-12395428
- Newsweek, “James Talarico: Texas 2026 midterms, Ken Paxton, poll” — https://www.newsweek.com/james-talarico-texas-2024-midterms-ken-paxton-poll-12502123
- Newsweek, “Ken Paxton, Texas, James Talarico, polls, Senate” — https://www.newsweek.com/ken-paxton-texas-james-talarico-polls-senate-12412732
- Austin American-Statesman, “Travis County early voting on pace for midterm ballot record” — https://www.statesman.com/news/article/travis-county-early-voting-midterm-record-22490923.php
- AOL, “What the final polls are forecasting for the 2026 midterm elections” — https://www.aol.com/news/politics/what-the-final-polls-are-forecasting-for-the-2026-midterm-elections-172234000.html
- Yahoo News, “Midterms 2026: Will Republicans or Democrats win control of the House?” — https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/midterms-2026-will-republicans-or-democrats-win-control-of-the-house-these-are-the-key-races-to-watch-tomorrow-164124206.html
- Newsweek, “James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton: What Texas polls show one week before midterm” — https://newsweek.com/james-talarico-vs-ken-paxton-what-texas-polls-show-one-week-before-midterm-12621879
- ABC13 Houston (see 13).
- Texas Tribune, “Paxton vs. Talarico: Five things to watch” — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/02/texas-paxton-talarico-senate-key-factors-2026-election-night/
- NPR, “6 things to watch for on election night” — https://www.npr.org/2026/11/02/nx-s1-6025451/midterms-what-to-watch-election-night
- San Antonio Current, “Paxton vs. Talarico: Five things to watch” — https://www.sacurrent.com/news/texas-news/paxton-vs-talarico-five-things-to-watch-in-texas-tight-u-s-senate-race/
- 270toWin, “Texas 2026 Election Results” — https://www.270towin.com/2026-election-results-live/state/texas/
- FreshCalendars, “Texas Election Results 2026: When Polls Close, Where to Follow the Count and Canvass Dates” — https://freshcalendars.com/news/texas-election-results-2026-polls-close-where-to-follow-canvass-dates/
- Austin American-Statesman, “What’s on the Austin ballot? Your 2026 election guide” — https://www.statesman.com/news/politics/elections/local/article/austin-ballot-2026-council-bonds-amendments-22478770.php
- Axios Austin, “Austin 2026 voter guide for local elections” — https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/10/19/austin-election-midterm-city-council
- KUT, “Austin-area voter guide for the Nov. 3 election” — https://www.kut.org/politics/2026-10-14/austin-tx-election-voter-guide-ballot-races
- KUT, “Austin City Council District 9 candidates for 2026 election” — https://www.kut.org/politics/2026-10-19/austin-city-council-district-9-candidates-election-2026
- Austin American-Statesman, “Texas election 2026: Statesman Editorial Board endorsements” — https://www.statesman.com/projects/2026/austin-texas-november-election-voting-endorsements/
- City of Austin, “Voter Resources” — https://www.austintexas.gov/voterinfo
- KVUE, “Austin voters to decide on Proposition I” — https://www.kvue.com/article/news/politics/vote-texas/austin-voters-to-decide-proposition-regular-city-efficiency-audits/269-6cfe25f6-5296-4299-bdb6-ca9d464e1dac
- Austin American-Statesman, “What are the 8 Austin propositions on the November ballot?” — https://www.statesman.com/news/local/article/austin-propositions-city-charter-2026-election-22476750.php
- KUT, “What Austin voters should know about Prop I” — https://www.kut.org/politics/2026-10-19/austin-tx-charter-amendments-prop-i-ballot-election-audit-propositions
- Community Impact, “What Austin voters need to know about 10 ballot propositions” — https://communityimpact.com/east-austin/election/what-austin-voters-need-to-know-about-10-ballot-propositions-from-bonds-to-charter-changes/
- CBS Austin, “What is the debate over Austin’s Prop I?” — https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/what-is-the-debate-over-prop-i
- The Austin Chronicle, “City Leaders, Organizations Rally Against Save Austin Now’s Proposition I” — https://www.austinchronicle.com/news/city-leaders-organizations-rally-against-save-austin-nows-proposition-i/
- Austin American-Statesman Editorial Board, “Reject Proposition I” — https://www.statesman.com/opinion/editorials/article/reject-proposition-i-another-audit-isn-t-22421182.php
- The Austin Independent, “The Battle Over Prop I and Council Accountability” — https://theaustinindependent.org/the-battle-over-prop-i-and-council-accountability/
- KUT, “Travis County sees highest early voting turnout in decades for a midterm” — https://www.kut.org/politics/2026-11-02/travis-county-austin-tx-turnout-election-voter-turnout-early-vote-texas
- CBS Austin, “Travis County early voting tops 426,000 ballots” — https://cbsaustin.com/newsletter-daily/travis-county-early-voting-tops-423000-ballots-up-more-than-100000-from-2022
- FOX 7 Austin, “Travis County early voting: Record turnout drives long lines on final day” — https://www.fox7austin.com/news/travis-county-early-voting-record-turnout-drives-long-lines-final-day
- Statesman (see 19) for site counts.
- FOX 7 Austin, “Talarico holds lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate race poll with Election Day just hours away” — https://www.fox7austin.com/news/talarico-holds-lead-over-paxton-latest-texas-senate-race-poll-election-day-just-hours-away
Poll numbers and turnout figures are as reported by the cited outlets and change quickly. Early-vote totals differ slightly between outlets depending on when they were tallied. Nothing here is a prediction of tonight’s results.
WEATHER
MONDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
Here are the dos and don’ts of going to the polls, including what you can wear and what you can bring.
SPORTS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: Â Junior center Matas Vokietaitis recorded a game-high 22 points to lead No. 7/7 Texas (1-0) to a 109-59 victory over Chicago State (0-1) in the season opener for both teams on Monday night in Moody Center. The Longhorns have now won 25 straight home openers dating back to the 2001-02 season.
The 109 points scored by Texas marked the highest point total by the Longhorns in a season opener since a 136-97 victory at Oral Roberts on Dec. 1, 1992. The 50-point margin of victory marked the largest margin of victory by the Longhorns in a season opener since a 59-point win (103-44) against Alcorn State on Nov. 9, 2006.
Texas returns to the court when it hosts Gardner-Webb on Thursday. Tip is set for 7 p.m. Central in Moody Center.
TONIGHT
After months of campaigning and bruising primaries, we are finally here. It’s Election Day.
