The Night Texas Turned Blue
A special-edition look at the 2026 midterms: the statewide sweep, Travis County’s landslide, the fall of Prop I, and the collapse of the GOP’s hard-right bets
Published Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026. Results are unofficial and still being counted and canvassed. Races described as “leading” or “on track” had not been formally called at the time of writing. Travis County figures come from the county’s unofficial results summary file and cover Travis County only.
The short version
For the first time in more than three decades, Democrats won statewide in Texas, and they did it at the very top of the ticket.
- James Talarico defeated Attorney General Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate seat held by John Cornyn. Democrats had not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
- Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott, who conceded on election night. She will be the first Democrat elected governor since Ann Richards and the state’s first Latina governor.
- Vikki Goodwin was projected to beat Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, and Jon Rosenthal was projected to win a Railroad Commission seat over Bo French.
- The remaining statewide races (attorney general, comptroller, land commissioner, agriculture commissioner) were trending the same way as the count neared completion.
- Democrats also flipped congressional seats, appear to have swept the four Texas Supreme Court races, and are within reach of the Texas House for the first time in over two decades.
In Austin, voters rejected Prop I, the charter amendment that would have mandated recurring outside audits of city finances, by about 12 points.
“It’s probably a little bit like making it to the Super Bowl and losing. Tonight the voters did not choose the intelligent path. I don’t believe it’s because they closely looked at our proposal and decided that an independent performance audit is a bad idea. I think, in the end, they bought the lies of the other side. And so, that is the thing that’s hard to accept. — Matt Mackowiak, a co-founder of Save Austin Now.
The wave was national.
NBC News projected that Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, and the AP’s voter poll found roughly six in ten voters disapproving of President Trump’s job performance. Texas was the loudest single data point in that story.
Statewide results
Here is where the statewide contests stood on Wednesday morning, with the Travis County result from the county’s file alongside for comparison.
| Office | Democrat | Republican | Status / statewide picture | Travis County (D–R) |
| U.S. Senate | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Talarico won; roughly 55%–43% in NBC’s count, 54.1%–44.2% in an earlier WFAA tally of 7.5 million votes | 78.5%–19.9% |
| Governor | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | Hinojosa won; Abbott conceded | 75.8%–23.1% |
| Lt. Governor | Vikki Goodwin | Dan Patrick | Goodwin projected winner | 75.4%–22.0% |
| Attorney General | Nathan Johnson | Mayes Middleton | Johnson leading; trending Democratic | 75.6%–22.5% |
| Comptroller | Sarah Eckhardt | Don Huffines | Eckhardt claimed victory; about 51.3%–46.2% at 92% of expected vote | 74.7%–22.7% |
| Land Commissioner | Benjamin Flores | Dawn Buckingham | Flores led as the count neared completion | 73.8%–24.6% |
| Agriculture Commissioner | Clayton Tucker | Nate Sheets | Tucker overtook Sheets in late counting | 73.8%–23.9% |
| Railroad Commissioner | Jon Rosenthal | Bo French | Rosenthal projected winner; about 52.5%–45.6% at 92% of expected vote | 76.1%–21.7% |
Two things are worth underlining.
First, the early numbers were misleading.
When the first returns arrived Tuesday night, Republicans Huffines, Sheets and Buckingham held double-digit leads in the comptroller, agriculture and land commissioner races. By the time most of the vote was in, all three leads had evaporated, which says something about the order in which Texas counties report as much as it says about the electorate.
Second, Democrats ran within a narrow band all the way down the ballot. Talarico’s margin was bigger than Hinojosa’s, and Hinojosa’s was bigger than the lowest-profile Democrats’, but the spread was modest. That points to a ballot driven by party and national mood rather than by individual candidates, with a few notable exceptions discussed below.
A note of caution on the margins: they will move as the final ballots are counted, and the New York Times’ live model had projected roughly a 9-point Talarico win at one stage. Treat the percentages above as a snapshot.
Travis County: the engine room
The county’s results file shows how lopsided Travis County was, and it is a useful reminder of how much of the Democratic coalition lives in and around Austin.
Some details that stand out:
Paxton was the weakest Republican on the Travis ballot. He ran about three points behind Abbott (19.9% vs. 23.1%) in the county, and behind nearly every other statewide Republican. Only Bo French, at 21.8%, finished close to him. The Republican candidates who did best in Travis were the ones with the least baggage in the eyes of independents: Dawn Buckingham (24.6%) and the Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals nominees, who hovered between roughly 24% and 25%.
Judicial races were a clean sweep. Democrats won every statewide judicial contest in the county by roughly 50 points, including the Chief Justice race (Maggie Ellis 75.65%, Jimmy Blacklock 24.35%) and the newly created 15th Court of Appeals seats. In the Third Court of Appeals chief justice race, Darlene Byrne led Cory Liu 386,862 to 121,321 in Travis County, though that district extends beyond the county. All ten district court contests and the county court-at-law races on the ballot had a Democratic candidate drawing between 388,000 and 398,000 votes, and most had no Republican opponent at all.
County government stays entirely Democratic. County Judge Andy Brown (395,138 votes), District Clerk Velva Price, County Clerk Dyana Limon-Mercado and Treasurer Dolores Ortega Carter were all unopposed by a major-party candidate. Commissioners Brigid Shea (Precinct 2) and George Morales III (Precinct 4) and every justice of the peace on the ballot also ran unopposed. The one visible contest on the county slate was for the Travis Central Appraisal District board, where Yvonne Muñoz beat Phil Gorman 77.3%–22.7% for Place 3.
Congress and the Legislature (Travis County portions only):
| Race | Result in Travis County |
| U.S. House, TX-37 | Greg Casar (D) 83.89%, Lauren B. Peña (R) 16.11% |
| U.S. House, TX-10 | Caitlin Rourk (D) 59.77%, Chris Gober (R) 40.23% (Travis portion of the district) |
| State Senate, SD-21 | Judith Zaffirini (D) 85.63%, Julie Dahlberg (R) 14.37% (Travis portion) |
| Texas House, HD-47 | Pooja Sethi (D) 63.35%, Jennifer Mushtaler (R) 36.65% |
| Texas House, HD-48 | Donna Howard (D) 76.10%, Anthony Gupta (R) 23.90% |
| Texas House, HD-50 | Samantha Lopez-Resendez (D) 82.39%, Howard Olsen (R) 17.61% |
| Texas House, HD-51 | Maria Luisa “Lulu” Flores (D) 85.96%, Jessica Martinez (R) 14.04% |
| Texas House, HD-19 | Ellen Troxclair (R) 55.20%, Tom Luck (D) 44.80% (Travis portion of a district that is mostly outside the county) |
| Texas House, HD-46 / HD-49 | Sheryl Cole (D) unopposed; Montserrat Garibay (D) 90.01%, Green candidate Arshia Papari 9.99% |
HD-19 is the one place in the Travis file where a Republican led, and that is only the sliver of the district inside the county. The Hill Country portion of that district is where the rest of the vote lives, so don’t read the Travis tally as the district result.
Down-ballot and the rest of the state
Congress
Democrats took several Republican-held seats and held on in places the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting was meant to take:
- TX-23 (West and South Texas): Democrat Katy Padilla Stout defeated Republican Brandon Herrera to flip the sprawling seat, which opened up after Rep. Tony Gonzales abandoned his reelection bid in the wake of a scandal. More on that race below.
- TX-15 (South Texas): Democrat Bobby Pulido defeated Rep. Monica De La Cruz, flipping a district Democrats had targeted after the Rio Grande Valley’s rightward swing in 2024.
- TX-35: Democrat Johnny Garcia won in the newly drawn district.
- TX-34: Democrats held on despite redistricting.
The Texas Tribune’s overview described Democrats as poised to blunt the effect of the Republican gerrymander, likely sweeping the Rio Grande Valley seats and holding another San Antonio-area district drawn to favor Republicans.
The Texas Supreme Court
All four Democratic challengers were on track to unseat Republican incumbents on the Texas Supreme Court, which would give Democrats seats on the court for the first time in more than 30 years.
The Texas House
Democrats needed to flip 14 seats to take control of the chamber. By about 2 a.m. Wednesday the Texas Tribune counted three flips and Democratic leads in at least a dozen other Republican-held districts, with control undecided. Of the first 36 House races called by the AP, 34 went to Democrats. If the leads hold, it would be the first Democratic House majority since the early 2000s.
Tarrant County
Tarrant County, the largest Republican-run county in the nation, turned. Democrats won the county judge’s race and two commissioners’ court seats, including one in a district Donald Trump carried by 16 points, producing a 4–1 Democratic court in a county where Republicans had drawn new commissioner districts in 2025 aiming for a 4–1 GOP majority. Texas Monthly also reported flips in Denton, Collin (Paxton’s home county) and Brazoria counties, and even Brazos County in College Station, though those county-level tallies were preliminary.
Austin City Council
Five of the council’s ten district seats were on the ballot. Under Austin’s rules a candidate needs more than 50% to win outright; otherwise, the top two go to a runoff, which KUT put on Dec. 12. The Travis County file shows:
District 1 (northeast Austin, open seat; Natasha Harper-Madison is term-limited): runoff. It is a near-tie in a six-person field.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
| Amber K. Goodwin | 9,983 | 34.55% |
| Misael Ramos | 9,873 | 34.17% |
| Alexandria Anderson | 3,837 | 13.28% |
| Steven Brown | 3,439 | 11.90% |
| Portia Riggins | 937 | 3.24% |
| Michael Nahas | 824 | 2.85% |
Goodwin leads Ramos by 110 votes, well within the range where late ballots and the canvass could change the order of the runoff pairing. Expect a recount-adjacent nail-biter.
District 3 (Central-East and East Austin): Incumbent José Velásquez finished first but short of a majority.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
| José Velásquez | 9,955 | 47.70% |
| Neha Shah | 5,170 | 24.77% |
| Eduardo “Lalito” Romero | 2,513 | 12.04% |
| Brock Skinner | 1,932 | 9.26% |
| Gavin Fernandez Jr. | 1,299 | 6.22% |
Early-vote reporting had suggested Velásquez could squeak past 50%, but in the final Travis tally he is more than two points short, which points to a runoff with Shah.
District 5 (South and parts of Central Austin): Incumbent Ryan Alter leads but heads to a runoff.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
| Ryan Alter | 16,693 | 47.91% |
| David Weinberg | 9,128 | 26.20% |
| Liz Brink | 5,536 | 15.89% |
| Farrah Abraham | 3,484 | 10.00% |
KUT’s reporting pointed toward a runoff between Alter and Weinberg, the former head of the Texas League of Conservation Voters.
District 8 (Southwest Austin, open seat; Paige Ellis is leaving): Selena Xie wins. Xie took 21,903 votes (64.38%) to Jeffery Bowen’s 12,116 (35.62%) in the Travis tally. Because District 8 reaches into Hays County, ballots from outside Travis will be added to those totals, but the margin is not close.
District 9 (Central Austin): Incumbent Zo Qadri wins outright, narrowly. Qadri took 20,227 votes (51.41%), ahead of Rich Heyman (24.81%) and Katie Kam (17.46%). With only about 1.4 points of cushion above the 50% line, the canvass matters here.
Notably, Qadri, Alter, Velásquez, Mayor Kirk Watson and others on the dais had all opposed Prop I, and none of them was punished for it.
The city propositions: Prop I goes down
Eight Austin charter amendments and two bond propositions were on the ballot. The headline is Prop I, but the full slate tells you something.
| Prop | What it did | Travis County result |
| A, B | The two bond propositions in the $295 million parks-and-library package | A passed 61.5%–38.5%; B passed 60.4%–39.6% |
| C | Reinforces the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission’s independence from the council | Passed 68.6% |
| D | Changes the charter’s weekly-meeting requirement to match how the council actually operates | Failed, 36.0% for, 64.0% against |
| E | Gives the city more flexibility over things like public comment time and meeting agendas | Failed, 27.8% for, 72.2% against |
| F | Lets the city set campaign contribution and spending limits on Jan. 1 | Passed 74.3% |
| G | Moves citizen-initiated charter questions to November elections in even-numbered years | Passed 63.6% |
| H | Lets the City Council, rather than the city manager, hire and fire the city attorney | Passed 65.6% |
| I | Requires an outside audit of city finances at least every five years | Failed, 43.76% for, 56.24% against (136,861 to 175,881) |
| J | Cleans up obsolete language and typos | Passed 72.3% |
What Prop I was, and why it lost
Prop I was the signature initiative of Save Austin Now, the political action committee that earned more than 21,000 signatures to put it on the ballot. It would have required the city to complete an outside audit of its finances at least every five years, with a consultant chosen within 120 days of passage. Attorney Bill Aleshire, a former Travis County judge who drafted the language, argued the audits would save the city money.
Opponents included Mayor Kirk Watson, Council Members Vanessa Fuentes, Mike Siegel, Zo Qadri, Ryan Alter, José Velásquez and Chito Vela, and Rep. Greg Casar. Fuentes argued that writing the requirement into the charter would hand consultants leverage over price, and said it was a conflict of interest to require the auditors to find enough savings to cover their own fees. The city also already has an audit of its departments underway, led by Public Works.
Save Austin Now’s leaders acknowledged defeat early in the evening. Aleshire blamed opponents for misrepresenting the proposal to voters, a characterization that opponents would dispute.
The numbers are lopsided but not unprecedented. A similar resident-initiated third-party efficiency study, 2018’s Proposition K, was rejected by more than 15 points. A tally with all 318 precincts reporting had Prop I losing 56.4% to 43.6%, nearly identical to the county file. It follows a year after the same PAC successfully campaigned against Proposition Q, the tax-rate increase, so the group lost a high-profile campaign this year after winning one last year.
Two details are worth noting:
- A turnout story. Prop I was on the ballot in a high-turnout midterm that drew far more Democratic-leaning voters than a typical local election, and the proposal lost across the board. That is consistent with the idea, noted by KUT in its explainer on Prop G, that moving citizen-led ballot questions to even-year Novembers brings more voters into the process. Prop G passed with 63.6%.
- The limited-purpose exception. In the roughly 8,900 ballots cast by voters in Austin’s limited-purpose annexation areas, Prop I passed, 58.25% to 41.75% (5,192 to 3,721). That is a tiny sample, but it suggests the audit pitch landed better among voters outside the city’s core.
Elsewhere on the local ballot
- Austin Community College’s Prop A failed, with 63.0% voting against (26,485 to 15,534). ACC’s board seats went to Gloria Gonzales-Dholakia (Place 1, 58.25%) and Nan McRaven (Place 3, 64.71%), and Gigi Edwards Bryant ran unopposed for Place 2.
- Austin ISD: Candace Hunter won District 1 (56.98%), Jessica Neufeld won District 4 (57.59%), Sarah Dille won District 6 (58.75%), and Laurie Solis won District 7 (59.79%). The At-Large Position 9 race is razor-thin: Pamela Mathai has 85,311 votes (42.92%) and Cynthia Soliz 85,110 (42.82%), a gap of 201 votes, with Kirk Becker far behind at 14.27%. Neither is near a majority, so a runoff looks likely.
- Other districts: Del Valle ISD’s Prop A failed narrowly (51.76% against), as did Leander ISD’s Prop A (57.51% against). Round Rock ISD’s Prop A was a coin flip (50.56% for), and Manor ISD’s Props A and B passed.
How the wave happened: geography
No single part of the state made this happen. The AP-based reporting and local tallies point to four geographic shifts happening at once.
- The big urban counties ran up the score. Reporting described Hinojosa and Talarico “running up” their counts in the deep-blue urban centers. Travis County alone netted Talarico more than 314,000 votes. Dallas County’s early vote gave Hinojosa roughly 70% to Abbott’s 28%.
- The Dallas–Fort Worth suburbs flipped. Tarrant County, the largest Republican-led county in the country, went to the Democrats at the top of the ticket, and Texas Monthly reported Democrats flipping Denton and Collin, plus Brazoria on the Gulf Coast. Collin is Paxton’s home county, which makes the result particularly pointed.
- The Rio Grande Valley swung back. The Valley moved sharply right in 2020 and again in 2024, and that movement reversed. Texas Monthly cited Starr County, 96% Hispanic, which went from giving Trump 57% in 2024 to giving Talarico more than 75%. In unofficial returns from MyRGV, Hidalgo County gave Eckhardt about 72% of the major-party vote for comptroller (121,757 to 47,376), and Cameron County gave Johnson roughly two-thirds in the attorney general’s race (66,501 to 32,080). Democrats also flipped TX-15.
- Rural Texas was a smaller wall than usual. Texas Monthly’s early analysis said Democrats outperformed their usual rural showing even as Abbott, Paxton and the other statewide Republicans urged rural voters to turn out. Note that TX-23’s rural counties still went heavily for Republican Herrera, so this was an improvement at the margins, not a rural breakthrough.
How the wave happened: who voted
A caution before the numbers: full demographic crosstabs from the AP’s VoteCast and the Edison-NBC exit polls for Texas had not been fully published as of this writing. What follows combines the partial NBC exit poll data with the pre-election polls and with the geographic results above.
Latino voters
This is the story the numbers tell most clearly. Trump won about 55% of Texas Hispanic voters in 2024, according to NBC News exit polling. In the months before the election, polls found a swing back: a Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 5 and Telemundo had Talarico up 54%–36% with Hispanic voters and Hinojosa up 52%–39%, and Emerson College found Talarico up 54%–39%, noting that those voters disapproved of Trump, 53% to 41%. Cost of living topped the list of concerns for Hispanic voters in the NBC 5 poll, with 33% naming it the biggest influence on their vote.
The results in the Valley suggest the actual swing was at least as large as the polls suggested, which would be consistent with the March primary, when five rural majority-Latino counties cast more votes in the Democratic primary than Kamala Harris won in 2024. Talarico’s campaign also spent $800,000 on World Cup advertising, including Spanish-language spots, to reach Latino voters through programming they were watching.
Independents and swing voters
The partial NBC exit poll shows voters were far more favorable to Talarico than Paxton: about half (50%) said they had a favorable view of only Talarico, while 33% said the same of only Paxton. Marist’s October poll found independents backing Talarico, 52%. Marist also found that Texans were more likely to describe their congressional vote as a vote against Trump (38%) than for him (27%), with 34% saying Trump didn’t matter much to them.
Education, suburbs, and the school voucher fight
The San Antonio Current reported that Hinojosa built her own base among teachers and parents angry about Abbott’s school voucher program, which it said is projected to cost public schools about $300 million in lost funding.
Abbott’s office has also been examining the finances of several school districts, including Austin ISD. The Tarrant County flip and the Collin and Denton results suggest suburban parents were a major part of the coalition.
Young voters
AP’s national takeaways highlighted young voters and Hispanics shifting away from the GOP. Pre-election polling found Texas’s younger voters were more likely than older voters to disapprove of Trump.
The ticket-splitters
There were some. The Washington Post’s live coverage ran a profile of a conservative who split her ticket, and pre-election polling suggested a small share of voters backed both Talarico and Abbott. But the results show the splitting was limited: Democrats ran in a tight band down the ticket.
Money and message
Talarico raised $175 million, the largest haul for a campaign without a runoff and built a social media audience of 2.5 million followers. Forbes described the race as the most expensive of the cycle, with Republicans vastly outspending Democrats. Money did not decide it.
A word on the polls
The result was larger than most public polls indicated.
Marist’s October survey of likely voters had Talarico up 47%–45% and Abbott ahead of Hinojosa, 49%–45%. Emerson’s September poll had Talarico up just one point. Quantus Insights’ late poll had Paxton narrowly ahead. The Texas Tribune reported that prediction market Kalshi gave Hinojosa just a 37% chance on Election Day morning. That is worth saying plainly: this was a wave most analysts saw only partway coming.
The “Trump effect”
Donald Trump was not on the ballot, but the polling and the results make clear he was the weather.
Approval in Texas. The partial NBC exit poll for Texas found roughly 58% of voters disapproving of Trump’s performance, including 50% who disapproved strongly. Strong disapprovers voted overwhelmingly for Talarico, while 97% of those who strongly approved voted for Paxton. Pre-election, Marist had Trump’s approval upside down in Texas at 46%–54% among likely voters in October, and 43%–55% among registered voters in September.
A referendum, by voters’ own account. Marist’s findings that more Texans said their vote was against Trump than for him were consistent with the national picture. The AP’s national voter poll found about six in ten voters disapproving of Trump, around 70% wanting Congress to put more checks on the presidency, and roughly six in ten saying he put his personal interests ahead of the country’s.
Trump’s endorsements did not carry. Trump backed Paxton, and Trump endorsed Brandon Herrera in TX-23. Both lost. Trump carried Texas by about 14 points in 2024, and Democrats won the governorship and Senate seat in two states Trump took by double digits, Ohio and Texas.
The Hispanic realignment is partly a Trump story. Trump’s 2024 gains with Texas Latinos were the foundation of Republican optimism in the Valley. By October, polls found Hispanic voters disapproving of him by double digits. When those voters moved, the geography of the Valley changed with them.
Caveat. Exit polls are estimates, the Texas crosstabs were not final, and there is no way to cleanly separate “Trump” from the other factors in play, including cost of living, school vouchers and Paxton’s own baggage. But the pattern is consistent across polls, exit polls and results.
The hard-right bets that failed: Bo French and Brandon Herrera
Two Republican nominees became symbols of the party’s most combative wing, and both lost.
Bo French (Railroad Commission)
- How he got there. French, a former chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party, upset incumbent Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright in the May GOP runoff, 50.6% to 49.4%. He did it over the opposition of Gov. Abbott and House Speaker Dustin Burrows, who had endorsed Wright, and with substantial backing from the oil-money PAC of Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks.
- The record. French had “come under scrutiny for offensive comments targeting religious groups and for inflammatory social media posts”. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called for him to resign as county chair after French posted a social media poll asking whether Jews or Muslims were a bigger threat to America. His railroad commissioner campaign centered on opposing DEI and curbing what he described as Islamic and Chinese influence in the oil industry, rather than on traditional regulatory matters, and Wright said the commission “has nothing to do” with those topics.
- In September, French posted remarks about Asian students at a University of Texas football game that drew condemnation from Sen. John Cornyn and from a range of Republicans, including Rep. Drew Darby. NBC News described French as a “far-right candidate”.
- What Republicans did. Top Republicans, including Mayes Middleton, Don Huffines and Dawn Buckingham, did not rescind their endorsements even as others condemned French’s comments. Abbott and Patrick both endorsed French for the general election.
- The result. French finished at about 45.6%, trailing Rosenthal by roughly 7 points in NBC’s count. He also lost his home turf: Rosenthal led in Tarrant County. In Travis County file, French’s 21.68% was the second-worst showing for any statewide Republican, behind only Paxton (19.89%). It would be an overstatement to say French alone cost the GOP this seat, since nearly every statewide Republican lost, and his statewide share (about 45.6%) was in the same range as other Republicans on the ballot. The more defensible claim is that a normally low-profile race became a statewide test of his record, and he lost it in a year when almost every Republican lost.
Rosenthal, a state representative and former oil and gas engineer, declared that voters had rejected “blatant hate and racism”. This is the first time a Democrat has been elected to the Railroad Commission since the 1990s.
Brandon Herrera (TX-23)
- How he got there. Herrera, a YouTuber and gun-rights activist known online as “The AK Guy,” came within a point of toppling Rep. Tony Gonzales in the 2024 primary runoff (49.4%). In 2026 he came back, led the March primary, and Gonzales eventually exited the race after admitting to an affair with a staffer, a story that became a scandal for the district. Trump endorsed Herrera. He out-raised his Democratic opponent roughly three to one ($3.1 million to $1.1 million).
- The record. Herrera’s critics pointed to controversial online statements and accused him of extremist and antisemitic views; Herrera characterized many of those statements as jokes and rejected the accusations. He also clashed publicly with AIPAC, which spent over $1 million against him. His 2026 slogan was a play on “Let’s Go Brandon”. Whether “extremist” is the right label is something readers will argue about, and it is best attributed to his critics rather than stated as fact.
- The result. Padilla Stout, a former educator, flipped the seat. NBC’s count at 95% of expected votes had her ahead of Herrera 52%–44%, with independent Ben Mendoza around 4%, and KVIA reported a similar 52% to 44% with 97% of precincts in. TPR’s earlier snapshot, with two counties outstanding, had her at 55.2% to Herrera’s 42.5%. The final margin is probably between those two, so use the certified figure when it arrives. Padilla Stout credited moderate Republicans who crossed party lines because they could not support what Herrera represented, and told Texas Public Radio that his large online following had not translated into votes in the district.
The lesson, in both cases. Online reach is not the same as electoral reach. French and Herrera both won their primaries by mobilizing the party’s most committed voters, and both lost in a general electorate that included the moderates, independents and softer Republicans who split their tickets or stayed home. Their opponents also benefited from the larger environment: no Republican on the Texas ballot was running in a favorable year.
What comes next
- December runoffs. Austin’s runoffs for District 1, District 3 and District 5 are expected on Dec. 12. The AISD At-Large 9 race may also go to a runoff.
- Texas House control. The Democrats’ path to a majority depends on late counts in a dozen-plus districts.
- Special elections. Texas Scorecard reported that a special election will be called to fill Sarah Eckhardt’s state Senate seat if she holds the comptroller’s office.
- Governing. A Democratic governor will face a Legislature that may still be partly Republican-controlled, and the lieutenant governor, comptroller and railroad commission lineups will determine how much of the Democratic agenda is actually in reach.
- Austin’s audit debate is not over. The city’s own Public Works-led departmental audit is ongoing, and Save Austin Now has lost this round on Prop I but has not been dissolved.
Data notes and caveats
- The Travis County file is unofficial and Travis-only. Every row of the county’s summary file lists zero for the “precincts reporting” column, which most likely reflects how the export was generated, so I could not independently confirm that the file represents a complete count. Treat it as an unofficial summary pending the county canvass.
- Districts that straddle county lines. City Council District 8, Texas House District 19, and several congressional districts extend beyond Travis County. The percentages in this article for those races reflect only the Travis portion.
- Statewide numbers were still moving. Percentages cited from NBC, WFAA and KUT reflect different moments in the count and will not match each other exactly.
- Demographic data are preliminary. Full Texas crosstabs by age, race, education and gender from the AP and Edison exit polls were not yet public.
- Interpretations and labels. “Far-right” is NBC News’ description of French. “Extremist” and “antisemitic” are descriptions used by critics of Herrera, which he denies.
PODCASTS
Sources:
- Dallas Morning News, “Live updates: Hinojosa wins Texas governor’s race as Talarico tops Paxton for Senate.” https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/article/live-updates-texas-election-dallas-fort-worth-22484021.php
- Wikipedia, “2026 United States Senate election in Texas” (for the 1988 and 1994 historical context). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas
- CBS News Texas, “See 2026 Texas midterm election results from key local races.” https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/live-updates/texas-midterm-elections-2026/
- KUT, “Texas election results: Democrats break decades-long losing streak in Texas as Talarico wins Senate race, Hinojosa unseats Abbott.” https://www.kut.org/texas/2026-11-03/texas-nov-midterm-statewide-election-results
- NBC News (via NBC DFW), “Election results: Texas turns blue on wins from Talarico, Hinojosa.” https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/lone-star-politics/dallas-north-texas-election-results-2026/4098642/
- KUT, “Texas election results: Democrats take early leads in major Texas races as election results roll in.” https://www.kut.org/texas/2026-11-03/texas-nov-midterm-statewide-election-results
- CBS News, “2026 House election live results.” https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026/
- Law360 Pulse, “Dems To Win First Texas Supreme Court Seats In Over 30 Yrs.” https://www.law360.com/pulse/texas-pulse/articles/2544730
- Texas Monthly, “The Night Texas Turned Blue.” https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/2026-election-texas-turned-blue/
- KUT, “Follow the election results for Prop I and other Austin propositions on the ballot” and “Early election results show Prop I is failing” (via Austin Current). https://www.kut.org/politics/2026-11-03/prop-i-austin-tx-election-results-proposition-audit-ballot-texas ; https://austincurrent.org/2026/11/04/prop-i-austin-tx-election-results-proposition-audit-ballot-texas/
- PBS NewsHour / AP, “4 takeaways from election night.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/takeaways-from-election-night-young-voters-hispanics-shift-away-from-the-gop-as-voters-show-unhappiness-with-trump
- NBC News, “Texas Senate Results 2026.” https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/texas-senate-results
- WFAA, “Texas election results for key races in midterms.” https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/politics/elections/election-results-tracking-every-key-race-texas-november-midterm/287-566d3ac1-472a-47f7-9242-e640dc1498e4
- Texas Scorecard, “Democrats Sweep Texas Statewide Offices, Ending 32 Years of Republican Control.” https://texasscorecard.com/decisiontexas/democrats-sweep-texas-statewide-offices-ending-32-years-of-republican-control/
- KUT, “Texas election results” (updated live blog, comptroller, agriculture and land commissioner updates). https://www.kut.org/texas/2026-11-03/texas-nov-midterm-statewide-election-results
- Texas Public Radio, “Democrat Katy Padilla Stout claims victory over Brandon Herrera in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.” https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2026-11-04/democrat-katy-padilla-stout-claims-victory-over-brandon-herrera-in-texas-23rd-congressional-district
- NBC News, “Texas House District 23 results.” https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/texas-us-house-district-23-results
- Travis County unofficial election results summary (uploaded file, summary.csv).
- KENS 5, “Election 2026: Will Brandon Herrera or Katy Padilla Stout come out on top in US House District 23 battle?” https://www.kens5.com/article/news/politics/elections/election-2026-results-texas-district-23-herrera-padilla-stout-congress-san-antonio/273-325704f9-e3ae-4b7c-8cd1-8f7edc3efd59
- CBS News, “2026 House election live results as Democrats win House majority with Trump approval at historic low.” https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026/
- KSAT, “What happened in the Nov. 3, 2026, historic midterm election in Texas.” https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2026/11/04/what-happened-in-the-nov-3-2026-historic-midterm-election-in-texas/
- “Democrats sweep Texas,” as syndicated by Yahoo News. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrats-sweep-texas-044513910.html
- Texas Tribune, “Amid generational wave, Democrats await Texas House results hoping for control.” https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-house-legislature-outcomes-control-republicans-democrats-2026/
- Texas Tribune, live blog of the 2026 Texas midterms. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-midterms-2026-elections-live-blog/
- KUT, “Follow the Travis County 2026 election results.” https://www.kut.org/austin/2026-11-03/travis-county-tx-2026-election-results
- KUT, “Austin City Council District 5 race appears headed for runoff.” https://www.kut.org/politics/2026-11-03/austin-tx-city-council-district-5-election-results-2026
- Austin American-Statesman, “Election replay: Updates from Talarico vs. Paxton, Prop I, City Council and more.” https://www.statesman.com/news/politics/elections/article/austin-election-voting-results-2026-live-updates-22502540.php
- Community Impact, “Austin voters reject charter amendment for 3rd-party audits.” https://communityimpact.com/northwest-austin/election/austin-voters-reject-charter-amendment-for-3rd-party-audits/
- KVUE, “2026 Texas Midterm Election Results” (Austin Prop I tally). https://www.kvue.com/elections
- MyRGV, “Live election results: RGV races breakdown for 2026 midterm.” https://myrgv.com/alerts-brh/2026/11/03/live-election-results-rgv-races-breakdown-for-2026-midterm/
- NBC News, “Texas poll: James Talarico holds a narrow advantage for Senate while Greg Abbott leads for governor.” https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/texas-poll-james-talarico-holds-narrow-advantage-senate-greg-abbott-le-rcna598432
- Emerson College Polling, “Texas 2026 Poll: Talarico and Paxton in Dead Heat, Abbott Maintains Edge.” https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/
- “Texas Latinos turned out in massive numbers for Democrats,” via Yahoo News (primary-election analysis). https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/texas-latinos-turned-massive-numbers-200951237.html
- CBS News, “Why some Texas Democrats are forecasting a ‘Hispanic hurricane’ in midterms.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-democrats-hispanic-vote-midterms-talarico-paxton-hinojosa-abbott/
- NBC News, “Texas Governor Election 2026 Live Results” (partial exit poll). https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/texas-governor-results
- Marist Poll, “2026 Midterm Elections in Texas, October 2026.” https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-october-2026/
- San Antonio Current, “Texas Democrats flip U.S. Senate seat, take governorship and lieutenant governorship.” https://www.sacurrent.com/news/texas-news/texas-democrats-flip-u-s-senate-seat-take-governorship-and-lieutenant-governorship/
- Marist Poll, “Midterm Elections in Texas, September 2026.” https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-september-2026/
- The Washington Post, “Texas election live results 2026: Massive blue wave.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2026/11/03/texas-live-updates/
- On Point Polling (Substack), “Final Texas Poll.” https://onpointpolitics.substack.com/p/final-texas-poll-talarico-leads-paxton (a small online poll; included for context only and not relied on for any figure above).
- Forbes, “Midterm Election Results (Live Updates).” https://forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/11/03/midterm-election-results-live-updates-democrat-james-talarico-wins-texas-senate-race/
- FOX 7 Austin, “Paxton slips past Talarico in latest poll as Senate race enters final days.” https://www.fox7austin.com/news/paxton-slips-past-talarico-latest-poll-senate-race-enters-final-days
- NBC News, “Texas U.S. Senate Election 2026 Live Results” (describing Paxton as backed by Trump). https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/texas-senate-results
- Wikipedia, “2026 Texas elections” (runoff margin). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_elections
- Texas Standard, “GOP leaders shunned Bo French for racist posts. Now they want him to regulate Texas’ oil and gas.” https://texasstandard.org/stories/bo-french-railroad-commission-texas-rosenthal/
- Dallas Morning News, “Ex-Tarrant County GOP Chair Bo French heads to runoff in primary for railroad commissioner.” https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/2026/03/04/ex-tarrant-county-gop-chair-bo-french-heads-to-runoff-in-primary-for-railroad-commissioner/
- Wikipedia, “Bo French” (Wright’s criticism of French’s priorities). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bo_French
- Texas Tribune, “Several Texas Republicans condemn Bo French’s racist posts calling Asian students at UT a ‘problem.'” https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/13/bo-french-john-cornyn-republican-texas-railroad-commissioner-ut/
- Houston Public Media, “Top Texas Republicans knew Bo French’s history of racist comments. They supported him anyway.” https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/09/18/562263/bo-french-texas-republicans-silence/
- Spectrum Local News, “Republicans condemn the party’s railroad commissioner candidate over online post.” https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2026/09/14/republicans-condemn-the-party-s-railroad-commissioner-candidate-over-racist-online-post
- Yahoo News, “Democrat declares victory over Bo French in race for TX railroad commissioner.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrat-declares-victory-over-bo-012101559.html
- Ballotpedia, “Texas’ 23rd Congressional District election, 2026.” https://ballotpedia.org/Texas’_23rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026
- Texas Tribune, “Bo French ousts Railroad Commissioner in GOP primary runoff.” https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/27/texas-railroad-commission-republican-primary-runoff-wright-french/
- Wikipedia, “Brandon Herrera.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandon_Herrera
- KVIA, “Live blog: Nov. 3 election results.” https://kvia.com/your-voice-your-vote/2026/11/03/live-blog-nov-3-election-results/
