The Lone Star Showdown: Three Days to Go Before Texas Makes History
Early voting has closed in Texas.
After eleven days of casting ballots — from February 17 through today, Friday the 27th — nearly 1.9 million Texans have already made their choices ahead of Tuesday’s March 3 primary.
The polls open in just three days, and the races unfolding across the state have the rest of the nation watching closely. This is not a typical midterm warm-up. This is a primary with seismic implications for both parties heading into November.
The Race That Has Everyone Talking: The GOP Senate Primary
No contest in the country right now carries more dramatic weight than the Republican U.S. Senate primary featuring three-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Congressman Wesley Hunt. The Texas Tribune has called it “expensive and brutal,” and that may be an understatement.
At the heart of the battle is a civil war within the Texas GOP.
Cornyn, a 23-year Senate veteran, has drawn deep hostility from his party’s right flank — particularly for co-authoring a bipartisan gun safety bill following the 2022 Uvalde school shooting and for his past skepticism about Donald Trump’s political staying power.
There you go again: playing the victim. All your baggage is self-inflicted https://t.co/hCvMYQDH2f
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) February 27, 2026
Paxton, who has styled himself as a MAGA standard-bearer, has branded the race as a fight between courageous conservatives and a timid establishment.
John Cornyn is running again because he wants to push amnesty.
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) February 27, 2026
After over forty years in office, he wants to spend another decade doing what he's always done: helping illegals.
He must be fired. https://t.co/uqJxQgfHIQ
Hunt entered late, further muddying the waters and all but guaranteeing a runoff if no candidate clears 50%.
The x-factor hanging over all of it: Trump still hasn’t picked a side.
He flew into Corpus Christi yesterday aboard Air Force One — notably with Cornyn riding alongside him — to speak at the Port of Corpus Christi and trumpet his “Drill Baby Drill” energy agenda.
All three Senate candidates were present at the event, each positioning themselves for whatever crumbs of presidential favor they could collect. When asked recently about the race, Trump declined to commit, saying of Cornyn, “He’s a good man. John is a good…” and trailing off without an endorsement.
Great catching up with @realDonaldTrump on AF1 on the way to Texas. pic.twitter.com/zxVbyMnyKb
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) February 27, 2026
Thank you @realDonaldTrump for an amazing rally in Corpus Christi.
— Texas GOP (@TexasGOP) February 28, 2026
The midterms will decide whether President Trump gets two more years to lead – or two more years fighting political distractions.
Election day is next Tuesday, March 3rd.
Vote like your future depends on it.… pic.twitter.com/M5SIZNaype
Polls show that 55% of Republican primary voters say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to back a candidate — meaning his silence may be the loudest thing about this race. Satellite groups backing Cornyn, including a super PAC chaired by former Gov. Rick Perry, have spent roughly $60 million trying to prop him up. Paxton, backed by congressional allies Reps. Lance Gooden and Troy Nehls, leads in polling.
The Democratic Side: Crockett vs. Talarico
The Democratic Senate primary is no less compelling. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas is squaring off against state Rep. James Talarico of Austin in a contest that has become a proxy war over the future direction of the Democratic Party.
Crockett, a national co-chair of Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign and a flame-throwing progressive voice, has built her brand on confrontational politics and calling out the Trump administration with unmistakable energy. Talarico has argued for electability, pointing to his ability to win a state legislative district that Trump also carried.
The endorsement landscape has been decisive.
Friday, in a major late-breaking development, former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed Crockett, recording robocalls going out to Democratic voters this weekend.
Kamala Harris backs Jasmine Crockett in bitter Texas Democratic Senate primary https://t.co/EtOCPfSrDC
— POLITICO (@politico) February 27, 2026
It marks Harris’s first endorsement in a competitive primary since her 2024 presidential loss. Former Dallas Mayor and U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk, former Sen. Borris Miles, EMILY’s List, the Congressional Black Caucus, and progressive groups like the Texas Organizing Project have also backed Crockett.
Talarico, who has outraised Crockett significantly — $20.7 million to her $8.6 million — holds endorsements from Colin Allred, the Democrat who challenged Ted Cruz in 2024, though Allred later distanced himself after a racial controversy involving comments attributed to Talarico’s campaign.
A University of Texas poll released this week shows Crockett with a double-digit lead, 56% to Talarico’s 44%.
What the Early Voting Numbers Are Saying
The early voting data has set off alarms and celebrations in equal measure depending on where you sit. With about 53% of early ballots cast in the Democratic primary versus 47% in the Republican primary, Democrats have outpaced their 2022 midterm performance dramatically. Roughly 1 million Democratic votes have been cast in early voting compared to just 470,000 four years ago. Republican early voting is up too — from 777,000 to about 884,000 — but it pales in comparison to the Democratic surge.
Analysts caution against reading too much into it. In 2008, Democrats cast more than two-thirds of all Texas primary ballots, yet Republican John McCain won the state by double digits in November. Higher Democratic primary turnout reflects enthusiasm within the party base — fueled in large part by opposition to the Trump administration — but does not necessarily translate to general election wins in a state Republicans have dominated for three decades.
Still, the numbers suggest something is stirring. Democratic turnout in major urban counties — Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, and Travis — has been especially strong, while Republican turnout is more evenly distributed statewide. For Democrats, it signals that the energy to contest Texas in November is real. For Republicans, the data is a reminder that complacency heading into the fall could be costly.
TRAVIS COUNTY EARLY VOTING
Nearly 171,000 Travis County voters cast their ballots early in the eleven-day voting period. That’s 18.57 % of all registered voters in the county.
The Final Sprint
With Trump’s visit to the Port of Corpus Christi yesterday drawing crowds and cameras in a region with large Latino populations — where polls show Hispanic approval of Trump has slipped significantly — the final weekend will be a sprint of ads, rallies, and last-minute appeals. Whether Trump ultimately breaks his silence on the Senate race before Tuesday remains the biggest open question in Texas politics.
From the New York Times.
For now, the Lone Star State is center stage, and the country is watching every move.
Election Day is Tuesday, March 3. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
The ATX Aggregator will be LIVE BLOGGING during the day Tuesday and after the polls close.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s visit to Austin ISD’s Cunningham Elementary on Friday drew sharp pushback from parents who gathered outside the campus in protest. Kennedy, serving as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, toured the school’s kitchen, spoke with staff, and highlighted the district’s scratch‑made, whole‑food lunch program as a national model. Inside, he praised AISD’s approach and discussed federal dietary guidelines, while outside, roughly 30 parents and community members voiced concerns over what they described as his “dangerous” health policies and broader nutrition agenda.
Austin ISD leaders now project a $49 million deficit by the end of the school year, more than double the shortfall board members approved just months ago, intensifying pressure on the district as it struggles with falling enrollment and rising costs. (KUT 90.5)
In other Austin ISD news, trustees approved improvement plans in a 7-1 vote Thursday night for dozens of campuses struggling with state ratings, after hearing complaints from the community.
A former Austin ISD campus that closed years ago is being transformed into affordable housing, with a groundbreaking celebration held on Friday.
Southbound express lanes on U.S. 183 North will open this weekend, completing the final stage of a multiyear project aimed at easing congestion along the busy commuter route. Beginning Saturday, drivers heading south will be able to use the two new tolled lanes. The Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority opened the northbound lanes last month as part of a staggered rollout.
Progress in motion at AUS ✨🏗️
— Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (@AustinAirport) February 27, 2026
Watch crews install the new enclosed pedestrian bridge connecting the Yellow and Blue Garages, which will make access to BJT easy, once Phase 1 of the Yellow Garage project is finished later this year.
Learn more here: https://t.co/dQ9R7P0Z3E pic.twitter.com/vHpTuXJXfw
One person suffered injuries after a fire in Pflugerville last night.
Austin police have released more information about a fatal accident on South Congress earlier this week involving a pedestrian who remains unidentified and a driver who fled the scene. The incident was Austin’s 13th fatal crash of 2026. (Austin Police Department)
BREAKING
Austin police are investigating the shooting death of a man in a homeless camp in Northeast Austin.
Police don’t yet have enough information to determine whether the gunman poses a further threat to the public. (Austin American-Statesman)
This week’s Crime Watch from FOX 7 Austin:
Not one, but two of the Texas Ten Most Wanted are off the list.
An ABC News special report on Austin’s yogurt shop murders — and how they were solved three decades later — aired Friday night.
Wildfire activity across Texas has intensified, with new ignitions, expanding fire footprints, and shifting containment levels shaping the statewide response. The latest updates show multiple regions under strain as dry grasses, gusty winds, and warm temperatures continue to fuel dangerous conditions.
🔥 Current Fire Activity Across Texas
- Central Texas has seen at least 60 fires ignite since Feb. 19, driven by drought and persistent winds. Several have been contained, including the Cedar Gulch (237 acres), Turkey Creek (14 acres), and Old Highway fires (19 acres). Two additional Hill Country fires remain active as crews work to contain them.
- Texas Panhandle wildfires have burned more than 30,000 acres, including the Lavender Fire (18,423 acres, 20% contained) and the 8 Ball Fire (55% contained), prompting evacuations and a federal aid approval from FEMA to support firefighting costs.
- North Texas remains under a Red Flag Warning as warm temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds create ideal wildfire conditions. Fire crews continue to support Panhandle operations.
- Houston area crews are still battling the 200-acre Caddo Fire, which is 75% contained but continues to burn near Greens Bayou after four days. Wind shifts remain a concern for fire behavior.
The Texas A&M Forest Service currently lists the statewide wildfire preparedness level at Level 3, indicating elevated activity and resource demand.
🌡️ Why Conditions Are So Dangerous
- February has brought little rainfall, leaving vegetation extremely dry.
- Gusty winds and low humidity are accelerating fire spread.
- Warmer-than-normal temperatures are compounding the risk across multiple regions.
WEATHER
FRIDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
No records were set Friday, but we came close. ABIA’s recorded high of 87 was two degrees short of the record while Camp Mabry’s 87 degrees was four degrees short.
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
🔥 LMAO! President Trump has THE BEAST triple-parked right outside the door of Whataburger in Texas
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) February 28, 2026
This is ICONIC American stuff right here 🤣 pic.twitter.com/yu00lAXzSw
So you telling me they just happened to driving by a Whataburger in Texas filled with MAGA hat wearing bootlickers and flags hanging in the windows or was it just a pre planned photo op pic.twitter.com/YluSTMBR4A
— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) February 28, 2026
Whataburger aboard Air Force One.
We always say, it’s been a wild week in Texas politics – but between the high of unbelievable Democratic turnout in the primary, and the low of a potential sweeping away of justice for Ruben Ray Martinez, this one’s been extra wild. We welcome Progress Texas board member Dick Lavine for this weekend’s roundtable.
(Episode from February 27, 2026)
The guys give their predictions for the top primary races, and Brad reviews his trip out to West Texas for the HD-88 race.
Reporting from Deep East Texas this week: A Texas Senate race here is intriguing because it’s the only such race in which Little Gov. Dan Patrick isn’t overtly trying to hire a specific senator. We’ll explain. Plus, bossman Harvey Kronberg checks in about how the primary and general election could completely change the math in the Texas House for Speaker Burrows, who’s made the decision to govern by caucus instead of coalition. Our producer is the famous Evan Sherer and the original music is by Checkmayne in Houston.
(Episode from February 27, 2026)
Y’all-itics joins forces with Inside Texas Politics and we cut through the primary noise with two political insiders who discuss what they’re really seeing in the marquee races and what you need to know if you haven’t already voted early. Dallas Council Member Chad West updates the city’s effort to keep the NHL team in Dallas. And our roundtable on what to make of the early voting turnout.
(Episode from February 27, 2026)
San Antonio council members Friday voted to censure Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones at a special meeting.
A San Antonio man will spend decades in prison after a judge sentenced him in a child pornography case, following an online tip that led to a search warrant.
A new state mandate now requires residents to prove their legal status in the United States before they can get their vehicles on the road.
Houston’s annual Cinco de Mayo parade has been canceled this year, with organizers citing concerns over immigration enforcement and the safety of participating families. (Houston Chronicle)
SPORTS
COLLEGE BASEBALL: No. 3 Texas launched a season-best four home runs to blast No. 9 Coastal Carolina, 8-1, in the BRUCE BOLT College Classic at Daikin Park on Friday night. (Texas Longhorns)
TODAY
OTHER GAMES TODAY
NBA: Cam Spencer scored 25 points off the bench and Olivier-Maxence Prosper had 16 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Memphis Grizzlies to a 124-105 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE
NHL: The Dallas Stars are on a four-game winning streak and host Nashville tonight.
NASCAR’s return to Circuit of the Americas (COTA) this weekend marks the unofficial kickoff to weeks of major events — and with them, thousands of visitors and millions of dollars flowing into Austin’s economy.
You know a fast-food chain has pop culture relevance when it manages to weave its way into politics as we saw yesterday in Corpus Christi with Whataburger.
Texans’ attachment to Whataburger runs deeper than fast food — it’s a blend of identity, nostalgia, and statewide pride. The chain’s roots in Corpus Christi and its signature orange‑and‑white aesthetic have made it a cultural marker, showing up everywhere from minor‑league ballparks filled with fans in Whataburger‑themed gear to viral moments that blur the line between politics and pop culture.
