Texas 2026: High Stakes and Uncertain Outcomes
As Texas heads into the 2026 midterm elections, the Lone Star State finds itself at the center of national political attention. With a bitter Republican Senate primary, an open Attorney General seat, and a Supreme Court-approved redistricting map that could reshape Congress, the stakes have never been higher.
The Senate Showdown
The marquee race pits incumbent Senator John Cornyn against Attorney General Ken Paxton in what observers are calling the most consequential Republican primary battle in recent Texas history. Early polling shows a neck-and-neck contest, with various surveys placing the two within just a few percentage points. Representative Wesley Hunt rounds out the Republican field, though he trails significantly in most polls.
A Texas Politics Project poll from October shows Hunt is not well known yet among voters.
The race represents a broader fight for the soul of the Texas GOP, with Cornyn embodying the establishment wing and Paxton representing the hardline conservative faction aligned with President Trump. Polling indicates Paxton dominates among Trump movement voters, while Cornyn performs better with traditional Republicans—a much smaller segment of the primary electorate.
On the Democratic side, Representative Jasmine Crockett entered the race after Colin Allred withdrew, setting up a primary contest with State Representative James Talarico. Democrats see an opening, as polls show competitive general election matchups and Trump’s approval ratings underwater in Texas.
Paxton’s Baggage Problem
Ken Paxton’s ethical troubles present a significant wildcard. Though he avoided federal corruption charges and resolved his securities fraud case with a pretrial agreement, Paxton’s record includes impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House (though he was acquitted by the Senate), accusations of bribery and abuse of office, and a $6.6 million judgment awarded to whistleblowers he fired. His extramarital affairs and July 2025 divorce announcement have added personal scandal to professional controversy.
Despite—or perhaps because of—these controversies, Paxton remains popular with the Republican base, enjoying a 62% approval rating among GOP voters. Some polls show him trailing Democratic opponents in hypothetical general election matchups, raising electability concerns even as he leads the primary.
In a three-way matchup, Paxton gets 32% of the vote while Hunt and Cornyn each pick up 22%, with 24% undecided, according to new polling from Public Policy Polling commissioned by the Democratic Senate Majority PAC. Both Paxton and Hunt lead Cornyn in head-to-head matchups too, though with roughly a quarter of voters unsure.
Redistricting’s Impact
Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting effort, pushed by President Trump, aimed to deliver five additional GOP House seats. After federal courts initially blocked the gerrymandered map as racially discriminatory, the Supreme Court stayed that ruling in December, allowing the new lines to be used in 2026. The map targets five Democratic-held districts by splitting minority communities and packing Democratic voters.
This redistricting battle extends beyond Texas, with California countering by approving new districts that could flip five Republican seats. The nationwide redistricting race could determine control of the House.
Democrats’ Long Shot
Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but they’re cautiously optimistic about 2026. A recent special election saw Democrat Taylor Rehmet come within three points of outright victory in a district Trump won by 17 points, suggesting potential anti-Trump backlash. Democrats have fielded candidates in every race statewide, hoping increased turnout will benefit top-of-the-ticket candidates.
Still, the odds remain long. Generic ballot polling shows Republicans leading by 3-6 points across major statewide races. Democrats would need near-perfect execution, substantial Trump unpopularity, and high turnout to break their three-decade losing streak.
Other Key Races
Governor Greg Abbott seeks an unprecedented fourth term with minimal opposition, while the Attorney General race is wide open. Representative Chip Roy leads early Republican primary polling, with Democratic candidates Joe Jaworski and Nathan Johnson competing for their party’s nomination.
Issues Facing Texas
Texans were asked what is the most important issue facing the Lone Star State.
Political corruption/leadership topped the list, followed by inflation/rising prices, immigration, border security and the economy.
National Implications
Texas’s 38 electoral votes and delegation of House seats make it pivotal to national politics. A Democratic Senate victory would be seismic, potentially signaling a fundamental political realignment. More immediately, the redistricting-influenced House races could determine which party controls Congress and whether Trump’s legislative agenda advances or stalls.
As March’s primaries approach, Texas once again proves itself the epicenter of American political warfare—a testing ground for strategies, messaging, and the future direction of both parties.
Two people are dead at the scene of a homicide investigation in southwest Austin.
According to APD Public Information Officer Detective Leah Ratliff, it appears to have been a family dispute.
Before Monday’s incident, there had been 52 homicides in Austin in 2025.
Even with yesterday’s violence, the city will see a decrease in homicides for the year. (FOX 7 Austin)
Earlier this month, Travis County juries delivered guilty verdicts in two separate fatal shooting cases from 2021 and 2023, the District Attorney’s office announced Monday. Both defendants received significant prison sentences for their roles in the killings.
Case Details and Sentencing
- The 2021 Case: Vicente Reveles, 21, was convicted on December 12 of murder and deadly conduct for the death of 17-year-old Michael Carothers Jr. The shooting, which took place in downtown Austin, had previously drawn public attention because an APD officer also discharged a weapon during the incident. Reveles was sentenced to 30 years for murder plus an additional 10 years for deadly conduct.
- The 2023 Case: Elliott García, 43, was found guilty of murder on December 11. He was sentenced to 30 years in prison.
Comparison of Verdicts
| Defendant | Age | Conviction | Sentence |
| Vicente Reveles | 21 | Murder & Deadly Conduct | 40 Years Total |
| Elliott García | 43 | Murder | 30 Years |
Another case in Austin caught the attention of Governor Greg Abbott and prompted him to call out what he termed “progressive DAs”.
I am calling for legislation that creates a Chief State Prosecutor to actually prosecute criminals like this that DAs in places like Austin refuse to prosecute.
— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) December 22, 2025
Progressive DAs are literally leading to the murder of Texans.
Those DAs must be held accountable and prosecutorial… https://t.co/8xbCFbSnQD
The Austin Police Department (APD) is searching for a suspect accused of hitting an e-bike rider and leaving the scene in northwest Austin last month.
A truck driver offloaded a burning container from their vehicle in Lakeway before firefighters arrived Monday afternoon.
The Austin Police Department earlier this month indefinitely suspended an officer following a use-of-force incident involving an intoxicated woman downtown, a decision now headed to arbitration.
Pflugerville‘s new mayor was sworn in yesterday.
It looks like a planned luxury tower in Austin is on hold.
No surprise, but the Luminary condo tower is officially on hold. It has an approved site plan.https://t.co/cwSdFxVZy8
— The ATX (@TheATX1) December 22, 2025
From the ABJ:
Luminary, a 35-story, 400-foot-tall condo tower planned to rise at the northwest corner of West 14th and Guadalupe streets, was set to have its… pic.twitter.com/rzGr0przxM
A new Austin American-Statesman analysis of Austin Fire Department records examined all incidents where the department reported code “353— Removal of victim(s) from stalled elevator” between Jan. 1, 2022 and Aug. 31, 2025.
ABIA was the worst by far with 182 elevator incidents since 2022— about one per week on average. The most common rescue location was the rental car facility building. (Austin American-Statesman)
Austin airport officials say the next two weeks will be very busy for holiday travel. To speed things up, there are a few things you should keep in mind.
Planning to park at AUS this holiday season? 🅿️🎄
— Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (@AustinAirport) December 23, 2025
Visit https://t.co/xaJ0NqZ6Ts to check real-time availability.
⚠️ Please note: Parking reservations will not be accepted from Dec. 23 to Jan. 2.
Travelers are encouraged to have a backup plan, like using a rideshare service. pic.twitter.com/cUGdNQXdlw
A busy day inside BJT can also mean a busy day outside BJT, especially during the holidays. Plan accordingly so you don't get stuck in traffic! 🚗
— Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (@AustinAirport) December 22, 2025
Remember that you can use both the upper and lower levels for passenger pick-up and drop-off. And arrive early, just in case! 👋👋 pic.twitter.com/RoJG0zzonE
The Texas Department of Transportation created a forecast for traffic on Interstate 35 in Austin amid holiday travel.
Drivers in North Austin will very soon have some improvements to their commute, if they pay for it. The first new toll lanes of the 183 North Project will open in early 2026.
We hope you’ve all had a wonderful time at the Trail of Lights powered by @HEB.
— Austin Trail of Lights (@ATXLights) December 22, 2025
If you haven’t yet, this is your reminder that tonight and tomorrow, Dec 23, are the last nights to visit us! Don’t miss out on Austin’s biggest holiday tradition. Get tickets: https://t.co/iOZ8RWkvQG pic.twitter.com/RuP14bAnSF
PODCAST
WEATHER
MONDAY’S HIGH /LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST /AUSTIN, TEXAS
A large bubble of warm air will build over the south-central part of the United States this week with room to expand. The result has the potential to be one of the warmest Christmases on record, including the day before and after for some locations. (AccuWeather)
How will the Texas power grid perform this winter?
Tragedy in Galveston yesterday.
At least five people have been killed after a Mexican Navy Beechcraft 350i crashed in foggy conditions near Galveston, Texas on Monday while transporting a child burns victim.
— Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) December 23, 2025
The aircraft was taking part in a medical mission on behalf of the Michou y Mau Foundation, which… pic.twitter.com/2tFgiNFR3k
Shriners Children’s Hospital released a statement regarding the death of a child in the Galveston Bay plane crash Monday:
“It is with profound sadness that we learned of a child involved in a plane crash while being transported for burn care in Galveston this afternoon. Shriners Children’s Texas prides ourselves on caring for children from all over the world.”
Shriners was going to treat the child, who was a burn victim.
Investigators are still searching for a 24-year-old woman who went missing over 10 days ago near a Houston shopping center, and newly reviewed surveillance footage appears to offer few leads. (Houston Chronicle)
Two Bexar County deputies continue to improve after being shot over the weekend.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Monday announced the launch of a redesigned website for the state’s Crime Victim Services Division, aimed at making it easier for victims, advocates and service providers to access information and submit materials online.
Nine members of Congress from Texas — six Republicans, three Democrats — have announced they will depart at the end of this term. In addition, four incumbents are facing serious primary challengers — a massive departure that will weaken the state’s clout in the U.S. House and force its members to rebuild Texas’ oft-cited prestige on Capitol Hill. (Texas Tribune)
A Travis County judge ruled that the Republican Party of Texas properly rejected a candidate’s application to run for a seat on the Texas Supreme Court, dissolving a temporary restraining order and denying further injunctive relief. (Texas Scorecard)
A Texas high school football player accidentally shot a teammate just after a state championship game.
Three European men have been arrested in Texas for gift card fraud valued at over $14 million.
New Quinnipiac University polling paints a dismal picture for Donald Trump – but also dissatisfaction among Democrats with their own party.
Trump’s lack of discipline and expertise may be the undoing of his own efforts to establish an American authoritarian regime – but he still has three years to work on it.
McClennan County Justice Of The Pease Dianne Hensley, cleared to sue the Texas State Commission on Judicial Conduct for calling her on denying same sex marriages in her courtroom, is now going after the SCOTUS decision that recognized those marriages in 2015.
Texas’ near-complete ban on abortion care has impacted both new OB/GYN trainees, creating a reproductive medicine “brain drain”, but has also pressured experienced veterans of the field to either leave Texas or retire early.
(Episode from December 22, 2025)
STILL CLIMBING…
For the 46th consecutive drawing, no one correctly matched all six numbers in last night’s Powerball drawing for one of the biggest jackpots in lottery history.
SPORTS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: Matas Vokietaitis had 22 points and eight rebounds, Jordan Pope hit five 3-pointers and finished with 21 points, and Texas never trailed Monday night in its 94-71 win over Maryland-Eastern Shore. It was the final non-conference game of the season. (Yahoo! Sports)
Texas does not play again until January 3 when they begin SEC play at home against Mississippi State.
NBA: Zion Williamson scored 24 points, including 10 straight in a decisive two-minute span of the fourth quarter, to power the New Orleans Pelicans to a 119-113 victory over the Dallas Mavericks, extending the Pelicans’ season-long winning streak to five games. (Yahoo! Sports)
ON THE SCHEDULE
The Mavs are back in the Big D tonight while San Antonio and Houston are also scheduled to play.
NHL: The Dallas Stars are in the Motor City tonight.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Just days before their Citrus Bowl match against Michigan, the Texas Longhorns have lost another player to the transfer portal. That makes 20 now.
Texas Football Making BIG Roster Changes | LIVE | 12/23/25
Got us feelin’ the cheesiest 🤘 pic.twitter.com/FLcJSXDTl7
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) December 22, 2025
Take a festive drive-thru timelapse down Candy Cane Lane in Conroe, one of the area’s favorite neighborhood Christmas light traditions. This POV drive captures the glow of decorated homes, colorful light displays, and the holiday spirit that draws families from across Montgomery County each December.
