Rain Expected for Central Texas: Will It Help Our Drought?
After 45 days without meaningful rainfall, Central Texas is finally about to get wet. A Pacific cold front is forecast to arrive late Friday evening into Saturday morning, bringing with it the potential for substantial precipitation across the region.
What Forecasters Are Expecting
Meteorologists predict rain totals of over an inch for most areas, with isolated locations possibly receiving 2-4 inches. The heaviest rain is expected Friday evening through Saturday morning as the cold front pushes through the region.
The National Weather Service has issued a level 2 out of 4 flood threat for most of the viewing area, warning that flash flooding is possible in areas that receive the highest rainfall totals. Rain chances are forecast to be between 70% and 90% from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
The timing looks particularly significant for Friday evening commutes and overnight hours. Friday will start warm and muggy near 70 degrees, and since rain will likely hold off until evening, temperatures may still reach the mid-80s during the day. Once the front arrives, Saturday’s high temperatures could be limited to the upper 70s if clouds and showers linger—the coolest since September 7th.
Will This Break the Drought?
The short answer is: it will help, but it won’t solve everything.
Central Texas is currently experiencing serious drought conditions. The Barton Springs-Edwards Aquifer Conservation District declared Stage 3 Exceptional Drought in September, only the second time in the district’s history.
While Central Texas is currently only about 5 inches below the year-to-date average for 2025, the region faces a deep cumulative deficit of roughly 25 inches over the past three years.
Governor Greg Abbott renewed the drought disaster proclamation on Monday for multiple Central Texas counties including Travis, Williamson, Hays, Burnet, Llano, Blanco, and others, underscoring the severity of current conditions.
This weekend’s rain event will provide welcome relief. One to four inches of precipitation will replenish soil moisture, reduce wildfire danger, and benefit stressed vegetation. However, it takes sustained rainfall over weeks and months to recharge aquifers and reservoirs that have been depleted over three years of below-average precipitation.
Extended Forecast
Meteorologists characterize this as “a beneficial rain event for most,” while cautioning that too much rain too fast can still cause flooding. After the front passes, Sunday is expected to bring drier air and more seasonable temperatures.
For Central Texans who’ve watched their lawns turn brown and water restrictions tighten, this weekend’s rain will be a welcome sight. Just don’t expect it to be a miracle cure for our long-term water woes. That will require multiple rain events over the coming months—and perhaps a fundamental shift in the weather pattern that has kept us so dry.
Stay weather-aware this Friday evening and Saturday morning, especially if you’re in low-lying or flood-prone areas. And when the rain does arrive, take a moment to appreciate it—even if it does complicate your weekend plans.
MORE ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND TODAY’S WEATHER CAN BE FOUND FURTHER DOWN THIS POST IN “WEATHER”.
Austin City Council meets today. A workshop first then its regularly scheduled meeting will take place.
Here’s what’s on the agenda:
Morning Proclamations (9:00 AM)
- Austin Soundwaves Day
- Texas Museum Day
- Carrasco Family Day
- HopeFest Day
- CMPBS Day
Major Financial Items
Bond Issuances:
- $3 million in Water and Wastewater Revenue Bonds for waterline replacement
- $10 million for Travis Heights reclaimed water main project
- Up to $475 million in Electric Utility Revenue Refunding Bonds
- Up to $46.175 million in Hotel Occupancy Tax Revenue Refunding Bonds for Convention Center
- Up to $650 million in Special Tax Revenue Bonds for Convention Center expansion
Large Contracts:
- $450 million amendment to Austin Convention Center expansion contract with JE Dunn/Turner joint venture (total contract value: $1.65 billion)
- $40.3 million contract for Nutanix IT products and services
- $26 million for water and wastewater engineering services
- $22 million for airport security systems maintenance
- $20 million for Pilot Knob Water Transmission Main engineering services
Key Policy Items
Public Health:
- Amendment to expand Austin/Travis County Public Health Commission from 9 to 13 members (9 regular, 4 ex officio)
- Appointment of Jawad Ali to the Public Health Commission
- $150,000 additional funding for American Gateways legal services
Public Safety:
- Approval of Community Police Review Commission bylaws
- Police chief’s appointment of police reserve force members
- Speed limit changes on Scofield Farms Drive near River Oaks Elementary School
Parks and Recreation:
- Updated policies for concessions in City parks, including new legacy concessionaire category
Real Estate and Property
Eminent Domain Proceedings:
- Little Walnut Creek – Jamestown Channel Project (District 4)
- Texas Interstate Highway 35 water/wastewater relocation (District 9)
- Northern Walnut Creek Trail Phase Three (District 1)
Leases:
- 60-month lease extension for 60,750 sq ft at 8700-8900 Cameron Road ($8.571 million total)
Zoning and Land Use (2:00 PM)
Major Zoning Cases:
- Downtown building height limit ordinance and Density Bonus Program updates
- Multiple historic landmark designations (Palm Park Shelter House, Stedman-Graves House, Castleman-Bull House)
- Saxon Acres 2 multifamily rezoning (District 3)
- Vargas Mixed Use development (District 3)
- Christ Church Planning mixed-use development (District 3)
- Multiple neighborhood plan amendments and rezonings throughout the city
Public Communication (12:00 PM)
Topics include:
- AI surveillance and immigration concerns
- Digital literacy
- UMLAUF Sculpture Garden bond support
- Environmental issues and walkable city infrastructure
- Barton Springs Pool safety concerns
- UNO update schedule
Live Music Performance: Mama Duke
Executive Session
- Austin Energy generation and resource issues
- City Auditor appointment personnel matters
WATCH AUSTIN CITY COUNCIL MEETING LIVE
PODCAST
The fight over Austinites’ vote in the city’s tax rate election is going full-force, with early voting already underway and thousands of dollars spent by the two sides. In case you hadn’t heard, Austin City Council voted to ask you to pay more in property taxes in order to fund its $6.3 billion budget. The 5% increase per $100 valuation is set to bring in around $110 million. Yesterday, we dug into the case for the measure, known as Proposition Q. Today, we discuss the case against Proposition Q.
Austin Firefighter Contract Vote Delayed Amid Union Concerns
The city of Austin and the Austin Firefighters Association (AFA) have postponed the vote on their new tentative labor agreement, just weeks after announcing the deal following heated negotiations. Both parties independently decided to delay the decision this week, citing lingering concerns.
Key Point of Contention: The “Austin Schedule”
A major sticking point appears to be the implementation of a new work schedule, dubbed the “Austin schedule,” which was a key ask from the union.
- Current Schedule: Firefighters work one day, then have two days off.
- Proposed “Austin Schedule”: Firefighters would work one day, have three days off, work two days, and then have three days off.
More from Austin American-Statesman
A laundry room fire last night/early this morning in the Rainey district was brought under control.
Many hotel guests had to be evaluated.
Three people were injured early Wednesday morning in a collision in South Austin.
New details have been released about an incident this past weekend in which a scooter rider was struck by a vehicle near the Texas Capitol. The driver reportedly left the scene and the victim later died.
The city of Austin has filed a motion to dismiss a lawsuit filed by a woman who was shot in the eye by police on 6th Street in December 2023. (CBS Austin)
A Hays County Sheriff’s deputy is on leave after he was arrested by Kyle police for public intoxication.
The Caldwell County Sheriff’s Office is investigating after a dead body was found on Tuesday.
Mustang Ridge authorities say a trucker was found dead in his rig at a local truck stop last week. No foul play is suspected.
Dallas airports have the most delays among the largest U.S. airports, according to new data from the travel resources website Upgraded Points.
Austin-Bergstrom had the 12th-most delays related to security. (Austin American-Statesman)
New details are emerging about the new boardwalk that is near completion over Lady Bird Lake. (90.5 KUT)
Lake Austin has transformed over the past few months. Thick, green patches of plants line the lake downstream near Tom Miller Dam. Some Lake Austin business owners are pushing city leaders to drain the lake to stop hydrilla.
WEATHER
WEDNESDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
All eyes are on Tropical Storm Melissa.
The two-year legal battle over a controversial Texas law is nearing its close. On Tuesday, a federal court judge ruled the statute violates the U.S. Constitution, making it the third such declaration by a federal court—including a similar ruling from an appeals court—that has found the law unconstitutional.
Texas Senator Brian Birdwell (R-Granbury) has been nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as an assistant secretary of defense, the White House announced Tuesday. For Birdwell, a six-term state senator, this position would be a homecoming to the Pentagon. He is known for surviving the September 11th terrorist attacks, where he sustained severe burns when a plane struck near his office. Birdwell currently uses his expertise to oversee the Texas legislative committee on border and homeland security. The U.S. Senate must confirm his nomination. (Texas Tribune)
As the government shutdown hits Day 23, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas discusses the standoff with Democrats.
More job cuts are coming at Texas Instruments.
The Texas Capital Air Show scheduled for early November has been postponed due to the federal government shutdown, organizers announced Wednesday.
The air show, originally planned for Nov. 1-2, has been rescheduled for Nov. 7-8, 2026, according to a statement from event organizers. (CBS Austin)
Coca-Cola is recalling some popular products sold in Texas.
According to the FDA recall notice, the affected products include Coca-Cola Original Taste, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, and Sprite.
Despite falling short of Wall Street expectations, Tesla executives, including CEO Elon Musk, defended the company’s strategy on Wednesday’s earnings call by highlighting its future centered on artificial intelligence and self-driving technology. (Austin American-Statesman)
Without notifying city officials, Governor Greg Abbott has sent Texas DPS officers and other state agencies into Austin’s homeless encampments to arrest and disperse them.
Plus, other news from San Antonio, Houston and Dallas.
(Episode from October 22, 2025)
A Texas Christian singer and worship minister born without arms from the Houston area became an inspiration for his performances, earning praise and even an invitation to perform the National Anthem at a 2022 Trump rally. Now, he’s facing shocking allegations of promoting child pornography. (Houston Chronicle)
The first two days of early voting in Bexar County saw triple the turnout compared to the last constitutional amendment election two years ago.
Day 1 and day 2 of early voting in this election saw 21,000 people total with 10,158 on the first day and 11,693 on the second day. (Texas Public Radio)
After five years of failing performance grades, the Texas Education Agency is set to take over Fort Worth ISD schools.
Abilene, Texas, is set to become the epicenter of a massive new AI infrastructure project called Stargate, a joint venture announced earlier this year by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank. The companies are investing hundreds of billions to create a network of U.S. data center campuses, bringing substantial economic benefits to the Lone Star State.
This growth, however, highlights a looming crisis: bringing these projects online requires massive amounts of power. Texas’s peak electricity demand is expected to climb by over 60% in just the next five years, making energy access the single biggest challenge for these developments. (Texas Standard)
“It’s the economy, stupid.” — James Carville
Why did the Texas State Fair’s attendance drop in 2025? A local expert blames the economy.
SPORTS
NBA: Opening night of the 2025 NBA season for the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs was a tale of two cities.
Victor Wembanyama had 40 points and 15 rebounds in a highlight-reel return, helping the San Antonio Spurs spoil No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg’s debut in a 125-92 rout of the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. (Yahoo! Sports)
ON THE SCHEDULE
NHL: The Dallas Stars look to snap a three-game skid at home tonight against the L.A. Kings.
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MLS: Austin FC continue preparations for postseason play.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: The Texas Longhorns are at Mississippi State on Saturday…and a lot of lingering questions hang over the team.
Can the Texas Longhorns Win Their 3rd Straight? | LIVE | 10/23/25
Enjoy 25 minutes of just some beautiful private jets arriving into Austin-Bergstrom International Airport last week for Formula One weekend.
