Photo: Houston Public Media
Can Democrats Turn the Lone Star State Blue?
With the March 3 primary just ten days away, the nation is watching Texas like it hasn’t in years.
Something feels different in Texas heading into the 2026 midterms — and political observers across the country are starting to believe it.
A convergence of factors has transformed the Lone Star State from a reliable Republican fortress into what many pundits are now calling the most intriguing political battleground in the country, with Democrats daring to dream of flipping both congressional seats and statewide offices in November.
The mood shift didn’t happen overnight. It crystallized on January 31, when Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election for a Texas state Senate seat in a Fort Worth-area district that Donald Trump had carried by 17 points just one year earlier.
Last night, we made history.
— Taylor Rehmet (@TaylorRehmetTX) February 1, 2026
Our people-powered campaign showed what’s possible when we focus on the issues that matter to working families.
Neighbors from across the political spectrum came together to demand a government that works for all Texans. And I'm ready to get to… pic.twitter.com/JVVaCbZ2Ny
The upset immediately sent shockwaves from Austin to Washington. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries didn’t mince words, quipping that Republicans “done effed up in Texas, and they know it,” predicting the GOP would struggle to hold even three of the five congressional seats they had attempted to redraw in their favor. Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged the headwinds, conceding that the party in power typically faces tough midterm conditions. Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma called Rehmet’s win “a wake-up call.”
On the Democratic side, the primary contest itself has become a national storyline. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are battling for the Democratic Senate nomination to take on incumbent Sen. John Cornyn — or, potentially, Attorney General Ken Paxton, should the hardline challenger topple the 23-year Senate veteran. The New York Times noted the race as a contrast of Democratic visions: Crockett betting on progressive energy and urban turnout, Talarico pitching a broader coalition that could peel away disaffected Trump voters.
NPR‘s Ashley Lopez observed that if Cornyn actually loses his primary — something that hasn’t happened to a sitting U.S. senator in 14 years — Democrats would face a fundamentally different general election dynamic than anything Texas has seen in decades
Talarico drew his own national spotlight this week after late-night host Stephen Colbert’s interview with him was reportedly blocked by CBS, triggering a viral moment and a single-day fundraising surge of $2.5 million.
(Episode from February 17, 2026)
Meanwhile, Cook Political Report‘s Jessica Taylor wrote that Texas, while not an initial top Democratic target, may be exactly the kind of stretch-map play Democrats need if they’re going to find the four Senate seats required to flip the chamber.
Fueling the optimism is a $30 million coordinated campaign called Texas Together, launched just days ago by a coalition that includes the Texas Democratic Party, Texas Majority PAC, and Beto O’Rourke’s Powered by People organization. Party Chair Kendall Scudder declared that Democrats are now “running an organization comparable to that of swing states around the country.” The infrastructure mirrors a playbook that worked in the SD-9 special election, where volunteers logged 1.5 million voter contacts in two months.
Skeptics are quick to note that Texas Democrats have made similar declarations before — Battleground Texas launched with grand ambitions in 2013 and ended in decisive losses. Republicans still hold an 88-62 majority in the Texas House, and Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994. But with Trump’s approval ratings underwater in the state, a historically motivated Democratic base, and a fractured Republican primary, pollsters and pundits alike are agreeing: this year, at least, the ground beneath Texas politics is moving.
Sources: Texas Tribune, CNN Politics, NPR, PBS Newshour, Ballotpedia, Wikipedi
Over 30,000 people have voted in Travis County ahead of the March primary.
Number have grown steadily with each day of early voting so far.
(Full vote total includes mail-in ballots.)
TUESDAY: 10,841
WEDNESDAY: 11,473
THURSDAY: 12,009
A voting site in Williamson County is sparking controversy. In the city of Hutto, there’s only one place you can vote right now during early voting.
The University of Texas System Board of Regents has adopted a new policy restricting when “controversial topics” can be discussed on campus — a move critics argue is overly broad and poses a threat to academic freedom. (Austin American-Statesman)
The consolidation of race, ethnic, and gender study programs at UT-Austin is another outrageous example of Republican political interference in higher education. Texas students and faculty should be moving forward, not watching decades of academic progress getting rolled back.…
— Lloyd Doggett (@RepLloydDoggett) February 19, 2026
One person was injured in a shooting or stabbing in downtown Austin Thursday afternoon at the intersection of West 4th Street and Lavaca Street, according to police. (CBS Austin)
🚨BREAKING: another @CapMetroATX bus stop stabbing today at Lavaca/4th pic.twitter.com/iO127wCZP9
— Austin Videos (@ATXVideos) February 19, 2026
Austin police are looking for suspects in a credit card case.
A bomb threat reported Thursday morning at Methodist Hospital Hill Country in Fredericksburg prompted a swift, large‑scale emergency response as police, fire crews and federal bomb technicians converged on the facility.
Hospital staff notified authorities around 7:50 a.m., triggering a full sweep of the building by local officers and an ATF bomb squad. No suspicious devices were found during the initial search, but officials emphasized the response was due to of an abundance of caution as similar threats have recently targeted other Texas institutions.
A judge on Thursday decided to not give ownership of a dog back to a man who was caught on camera allegedly abusing it. John Kaschak is charged with a third-degree felony.
The video sparked outrage on social media and spurred community organizing on Austin’s subreddit page. More than 3,000 people upvoted a post about Kaschak’s civil hearing, leading to a packed courtroom.
A Travis County judge declared four men innocent Thursday in the 1991 Yogurt Shop Murders, formally closing a case that haunted Austin for more than three decades.
PODCAST
A Travis County District Court judge has declared four men innocent in the infamous Yogurt Shop Murders, a case that has haunted Austin for more than three decades. The ruling follows new DNA evidence linking the murders to another man. On this week’s Friday News Roundup, host Nikki DaVaughn breaks down the latest developments with executive producer Eva Ruth Moravec and newsletter editor Kelsey Bradshaw, exploring what justice means for these men after so many years. Later, the team digs into the growing fight against Central Texas’ data center boom, and a look at the Texan who just brought home an Olymic gold medal.
Austin quietly removed several painted crosswalks from city streets Wednesday, citing pressure from the federal government. (KUT 90.5)
Global technology company Arm Inc. was awarded a $4.16 million state grant to support the $71 million expansion of its Austin campus including a new chips lab. (Community Impact)
A family’s push to hold a foreign ride manufacturer responsible for their son’s death has drawn their attorney’s attention to COTALAND, the new theme park at Circuit of the Americas set to fully open this year. He plans to seek an injunction in the coming weeks to halt construction of a planned drop tower, despite COTALAND officials insisting their version is a substantially different, more traditional design with major safety upgrades.
TxDOT crews could soon make some big changes to an eight-mile stretch of U.S. 77 near Giddings in Lee County and they agency wants public input on the project.
New lanes are now open on the U.S. 290 main lanes heading eastbound in southwest Austin as part of the Oak Hill Parkway project.
🔥 Current Burn Ban Status: Active
- Travis County enacted a burn ban on February 10th due to ongoing dry vegetation, low humidity, and elevated wildfire risk.
- The order is set to remain in place for 30 days, unless lifted earlier by the county judge or fire marshal.
- It applies to all outdoor burning, with limited exceptions for supervised prescribed burns or certain hot‑work activities following fire marshal guidelines.
WEATHER
THURSDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
High Plains Wildfires Update
A wave of wind-driven wildfires has been tearing through the Texas Panhandle and surrounding Plains states this week, fueled by gusts reaching up to 70 mph, record-warm winter temperatures, and tinder-dry conditions.
8-Ball Fire — The biggest story in Texas, the 8-Ball Fire ignited near the Goodnight rest area along US 287 in Armstrong County and quickly spread into Donley County.
As of early this morning, the fire had burned an estimated 13,500 acres, forced the evacuation of approximately 400 homes, and threatened more than 1,100 structures. It sits at 70% containment — a significant improvement from just 25% earlier in the week. Governor Greg Abbott secured a FEMA Fire Management Assistance Grant, making Texas eligible for 75% federal reimbursement of firefighting costs.
Lavender Fire — Burning in Oldham and Potter counties near Amarillo, the Lavender Fire has scorched an estimated 18,400 acres and remains only about 40% contained, making it the most worrisome active fire in Texas right now.
Mandatory evacuations were issued for the Valle de Oro neighborhood, and crews are working to prevent the fire from crossing major highways north of Amarillo.
The Bigger Picture — Texas wasn’t alone. The Ranger Road Fire, which started in Beaver County, Oklahoma, exploded to more than 283,000 acres — nearly twice the size of Chicago — as it spread into southern Kansas, reaching only 15% containment as of Thursday morning. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt declared a State of Emergency for multiple counties.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller has declared an Agricultural Emergency, urging impacted ranchers and producers to seek aid through the State of Texas Agriculture Relief (STAR) Fund. The American Red Cross has disaster teams deployed across the Panhandle. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist, with the Texas A&M Forest Service warning that fire risk may spread eastward and southward across the state in the days ahead.
U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales said Thursday he is being “blackmailed” after reporting by the San Antonio Express-News found he had an affair with a staffer who later died by setting herself on fire. (San Antonio Express-News)
From Austin American-Statesman.
New reporting from The Texas Tribune is raising urgent questions about immigration enforcement, oversight and human life inside federal detention centers in Texas.
Austin American-Statesman and Houston Chronicle analyzed ICE arrest and detainer data across Texas and the San Antonio field office’s jurisdiction — which stretches 36 counties from Austin to San Antonio and west to the Mexico border — and compared totals from Jan. 20 through Oct. 25, 2025, with the same period in 2024. (Austin American-Staesman)
NEW: I'm suing Big Pharma corporation Sanofi for illegally giving kickbacks to doctors to prescribe the company's drugs.
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) February 19, 2026
The quality of Texans’ healthcare should never be determined by Big Pharma bribery. pic.twitter.com/UbR3qVq1PK
Paxton wasn’t done.
BREAKING: I'm filing my fourth anti-CCP lawsuit in three days by suing Temu for deceptive marketing and illegal data harvesting.
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) February 19, 2026
Temu is Chinese Communist spyware disguised as a shopping app. pic.twitter.com/Ij59g1LZAg
A Texas appeals court on Thursday heard arguments in a civil lawsuit brought by the state against Maria Rojas, a Houston-area midwife accused by Attorney General Ken Paxton of violating the state’s total abortion ban and practicing medicine without a license. The hearing concluded without an immediate ruling, which is expected in the coming weeks. (FOX 7 Austin)
San Marcos’ airport is about to get bigger.
Bexar County officials announced the dismantling of a contraband distribution ring that was smuggling synthetic cannabinoids (K2) into the Bexar County Adult Detention Center.
A Bexar County mother faces charges after allegedly telling her young child to walk 19 miles to school.
A confirmed Black Gangster Disciple gang member from San Antonio, has been added to Texas’ 10 Most Wanted Fugitives List.
Early voting has shown Democratic voters in Texas fired up to hit the polls – but it’s still going to be an uphill battle.
(Episode from February 19, 2026)
SPORTS
NBA: Stephon Castle scored 20 points, Victor Wembanyama added 17 and the San Antonio Spurs beat the Phoenix Suns 121-94 in Austin for their 7th straight win on Thursday night for their seventh straight victory. San Antontio also will face Sacramento on Saturday in Austin, a city the Spurs covet as part of a mega-region that they’ve cultivated for years. (Associated Press)
Bringing the drum to Austin! 🥁 pic.twitter.com/lvkSjR5etW
— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) February 20, 2026
Kevin Durant made two free throws with 3.2 seconds left for the last of his 35 points, and the Houston Rockets held on to beat the Charlotte Hornets 105-101 on Thursday night. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE
The Spurs and Rockets rest tonight. Dallas resumes action in their first game since the All-Star break.
COLLEGE BASEBALL: Third-ranked Texas hosts Michigan State this weekend.
Garner State Park is one of the most popular in Texas and for good reason. The hiking, camping, swimming, and floating opportunities are tremendous in this area. Hike to the top of Old Baldy for views that rival Enchanted Rock, explore Crystal Cave, or float the Frio.
