Polo’s Leftovers Are Headed for Texas, and ACL Fest Is in the Path
After a dry, scorching September, Texas is about to get a drenching.
Moisture from the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo is spreading inland, and the forecast points to several days of heavy rain and flash flooding, right as the 2026 Austin City Limits Music Festival gets underway.
What’s Driving This
Polo isn’t reaching Texas as a hurricane. Its leftover tropical moisture is being pulled into a strong upper-level system moving in from the Pacific, and a slow-moving front is expected to stall over the state. That setup concentrates repeated rounds of rain over the same areas. Forecasters have flagged moisture levels that are unusually high for late September.
The Day-by-Day Threat
Flood risk starts in the west.
Today’s risk is highest across the Panhandle, West Texas and the Borderland, including El Paso and Lubbock.
On Wednesday the focus moves to North Texas and the Big Country, with parts of the Hill Country also included.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of North and Central Texas, mainly along and west
of I-35.
* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Low-water crossings may be flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Slow moving thunderstorms may result in rainfall amounts of 2 to
5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
- weather.gov/safety/flood
The heaviest threat for Central Texas comes Thursday and Friday, when the outlook covers DFW, Waco, the Hill Country, Austin and San Antonio.
Severe storms are possible in the west early in the week, with damaging winds and a brief tornado or two not ruled out. Governor Greg Abbott has activated additional state emergency response resources and placed the Texas State Emergency Operations Center (SOC) on 24/7 operational status.
Rain totals could be big.
Estimates are for 4 to 8 inches from south of San Antonio through Dallas by Friday, with isolated 10 to 12 inch amounts possible.
What It Means for Austin
Local meteorologists expect the highest totals west of Austin in the Hill Country, where low-water crossings and rivers are the biggest concern. For Austin itself, projections are for 3 to 5 inches from Wednesday through Saturday, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches and a 15% to 40% chance of excessive rainfall. The National Weather Service says highs will fall into the 80s once the front arrives.
The good news: after the system moves out by the end of the weekend, the blistering hot temperatures of the last few months will be gone.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: OCTOBER 3-6
ACL Fest Weekend One
The festival opens Friday, October 2, and runs through Sunday, October 4.
It is rain or shine unless conditions threaten public safety. Organizers say they are clearing drains, pre-positioning equipment and speeding up setup at Zilker Park. The forecast heaviest rain is Thursday into Friday, though chances may linger through the weekend.
This is not without precedent. In 2013, heavy rain flooded Zilker and forced the cancellation of the final day, and 2009 became famous for its mud.
If You’re Going
- Bring a poncho and rain boots. Umbrellas are not allowed.
- Pack spare socks and keep phones in plastic bags.
- Follow the festival app and official social accounts for schedule changes.
- Never drive through flooded roads.
The dry-slot placement out west and the exact track of the heaviest bands remain uncertain, so check the National Weather Service and local forecasts often. Forecasts for Friday onward will likely shift.
Sources:
- Texas Storm Chasers, “Rain Is Finally Coming to Texas This Week”: https://texasstormchasers.com/weather/texas-flood-risk-this-week-polo-remnants/
- Space City Weather, “Heavy rains are inbound to Texas this week”: https://spacecityweather.com/heavy-rains-are-inbound-to-texas-this-week-with-flooding-likely-in-central-parts-of-the-state/
- FOX 7 Austin, “Austin weather: Multiple rounds of heavy rain and cooling trend”: https://www.fox7austin.com/weather/austin-weather-multiple-rounds-heavy-rain-cooling-trend
- FOX 7 Austin, “ACL 2026: Could we see some rain, mud during Weekend One?”: https://www.fox7austin.com/news/acl-2026-weekend-one-weather-forecast
- KXAN via Yahoo, “ACL preparing for potential threat of heavy rain during Weekend One”: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/music/articles/acl-preparing-potential-threat-heavy-220820734.html
- Austin American-Statesman, “Will ACL Fest get rained out?”: https://www.statesman.com/weather/article/austin-weather-forecast-acl-festival-rain-22449376.php
- Austin American-Statesman, “Rainy ACL Fest? Here’s how to prepare”: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/articles/rainy-acl-fest-heres-prepare-173544881.html
- MySA, “Will rain derail ACL Fest?”: https://www.mysanantonio.com/entertainment/article/acl-fest-rain-weather-22452890.php
- Weather.com, “Hurricane Polo’s moisture will trigger flooding in Southwest”: https://weather.com/2026/09/28/forecast/regional/hurricane-polo-southwest-moisture-flash-flooding
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WEATHER
MONDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
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SPORTS
MLB: The postseason comes to Texas this afternoon.
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