Texas Jobs, Uncertain Ground: What Labor Day 2026 Reveals About the State’s Economy
Texas has long sold itself as a jobs machine.
But this Labor Day, the picture is messier than the slogans suggest — shaped by immigration enforcement, an AI construction boom, and a governor’s race that’s closer than anyone expected.
Shifting Momentum
Texas employment was nearly flat in 2025, adding just 10,700 jobs.
Growth accelerated sharply in early 2026 before slowing again — and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas‘ own forecasts have swung wildly all year, from 1.1% to 1.9% projected annual growth and back again.
By June, the Texas Workforce Commission reported the state had added 43,400 jobs that month alone, bringing year-over-year growth to 177,900 jobs (1.2%) and pushing unemployment to 4.4%. The volatility itself is a story: even sophisticated economists are struggling to read this economy.
The ICE Effect
Construction and hospitality — sectors that lean heavily on immigrant labor — are feeling real strain.
Dallas Fed surveys show 18% of firms expect trouble retaining workers due to immigration enforcement, and interior ICE arrests in Houston and Dallas rose roughly 30% from June to November. In the Rio Grande Valley, over 9,000 arrests have coincided with a 30–40% drop in home construction loans, according to industry officials.
A South Texas builders’ association director put it bluntly: “Construction is the backbone of the economy… but here in South Texas, nearly 10,000 people have been detained. If this continues, everything will get worse.” Restaurant operators report similar pain, with over half saying immigration changes have disrupted staffing.
The Data Center Wager
Meanwhile, Texas is riding an AI infrastructure boom.
Google is investing $40 billion in three new Texas data centers; Meta has grown its El Paso project from $1.5 billion to over $10 billion; Vantage Data Centers is building a $25 billion, 1,200-acre campus expected to employ more than 5,000 during construction and operations.
Texas now hosts 486 data centers — either operational or under construction — second only to Virginia (some sources cite a higher number).
The catch: these facilities generate a surge of short-term construction work but relatively few permanent jobs once complete, alongside rising demands on the power grid.
The Political Stakes
Gov. Greg Abbott is running for a fourth term on the “Texas Model” — low taxes and job growth. His Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, is campaigning on affordability.
Polls show a race far tighter than Abbott’s past double-digit wins, with some surveys showing single-digit margins.
Notably, voters consistently rank affordability — not raw job numbers — as their top concern, suggesting that whether Texas’s labor market helps or hurts Abbott may hinge less on job counts than on whether paychecks are keeping pace with rent and grocery bills.
Data from the Texas Workforce Commission, released August 21, 2026, covering July 2026:
Statewide
- Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate: 4.8%
- Texas added 1,600 nonfarm jobs in July, bringing total nonfarm employment to 14,468,000
- Over the past year, Texas added 165,600 jobs, a 1.2% annual growth rate — about a full percentage point above the national growth rate
- Civilian labor force: 15,955,600, up 10,800 people over the month
Metro area rates (July 2026)
- Midland: lowest in the state at 3.4%, followed by San Angelo (3.8%) and Abilene (3.9%)
- Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos: 4.0%, down from 4.1% in June but above 3.6% a year earlier
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington: 4.6%, down from 4.7% in June
- Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands: 5.1%, down from 5.2% in June but above 4.8% a year earlier
Sectors driving growth: Private education and health services led gains, adding 5,900 jobs, followed by professional and business services (about 3,600 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (3,400 jobs).
Note: TWC typically releases the next month’s data (August 2026) in mid-to-late September, so this July report is the most current official release as of now.
Sources:
- Dallas Fed: Texas Employment Forecast releases, Feb–Jul 2026
- Texas Workforce Commission, June 2026 jobs report
- Texas Signal: “Immigration Policies Take A Toll On The Texas Economy”
- Border Report: ICE arrests and construction loans in the Rio Grande Valley
- Reporting Texas: South Texas Builders Association
- Texas Tribune via KWTX: Google’s $40B Texas data center investment
- AI Business: Meta’s El Paso data center investment
- Pipeline & Gas Journal: Vantage Data Centers’ $25B Texas campus
- KTVU: Abbott launches 2026 re-election campaign
- Newsweek: Texas governor’s race polling, September 2026
Here’s what’s closed today (Monday, September 7) across Travis and Williamson counties:
Schools & Higher Ed
- Austin ISD, Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD — closed
County & City Government
- Travis County offices are closed Monday with the exception of emergency services and correctional offices. County courts will be closed.
- Travis County Emergency Services (emergency management, medical examiner, fire marshal, STAR Flight) offices are closed, though essential 24/7 services stay available. The Travis County Sheriff’s Office is also closed on Labor Day, but essential personnel are working; jail visitation isn’t available on Mondays anyway, so that facility operates as usual.
- Williamson County offices are closed Monday, with the exception of the Williamson County Regional Animal Shelter, which is open for regular business hours.
- City of Austin offices, courts, and City Council offices — closed
Libraries
- Austin Public Library branches have regular hours over the weekend but are closed Monday.
- Cedar Park Public Library and Leander Public Library are closed Monday.
Transit
- Capital Metro runs its Sunday schedule and closes its administrative offices. There’s no MetroRail, Night Owl, UT Shuttle, or E-Bus service. MetroAccess subscription trips are canceled for the day, though riders can call to reschedule.
Parks/Recreation
- City-operated pools like Barton Springs and Bartholomew stay open, though many smaller neighborhood pools are already closed for the season.
Banks & Federal Offices (standard nationwide for Labor Day, not county-specific)
- Banks (Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, local credit unions, etc.) — closed
- Federal offices, U.S. Postal Service, federal courts — closed
- Stock markets (NYSE, NASDAQ) — closed
Generally still open
- Grocery stores, most retail, restaurants — normal or slightly adjusted hours
- Golf courses, tennis courts, splash pads — typically open
A few notes: exact office-by-office details can shift year to year, so if a specific closure matters a lot (say, a particular DMV branch or courthouse), it’s worth a quick check of that office’s site. Also, private employers and individual bank branches sometimes vary, so confirm with yours directly if you have a transaction planned today.
WEATHER
SUNDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
Texas A&M Forest Service officials are monitoring four active wildfires in two counties this morning in Texas. They are: the massive Ross Fire in Palo Pinto County and the Bug Fire also in Palo Pinto. Also, in Sutton County, the South Day Fire and Follow Fires are active.
The Ross Fire has burned at least 90,048 acres in Palo Pinto and Jack counties, near U.S. 180 and FM 919, and was 57% contained as of this morning.
157 structures have been destroyed, 140 are damaged, and 453 have been saved.
- Started: The afternoon of August 24, 2026, under elevated fire conditions.
- Cause: Texas A&M Forest Service Law Enforcement, working with local agencies, determined it was human-caused — originating from equipment or vehicle use tied to a roadside start on Highway 180. (An earlier statement attributed it to a blown tire, but investigators later said they couldn’t pinpoint the exact ignition source.)
- Scale: It ranks among the largest wildfires ever recorded in North Texas, behind the 126,734-acre Possum Kingdom Complex fire of 2011.
- Response: Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with local departments, with heavy equipment and aviation resources assisting suppression, and a Temporary Flight Restriction is in place over the fire area. Jared Karns of the Forest Service said crews have dropped two million gallons of water and half a million gallons of retardant, with 23–24 aircraft assigned.
- Impact: Jack County residents along County Road 2210 toward Highway 281 were told to evacuate on August 25, but that order was lifted the next day as conditions improved. More than 100 head of livestock have died, with the full toll still unknown since some areas remain inaccessible. No people have been killed or injured.
Coming into these elections, some knew that it could be a challenging year for Republicans, and we are seeing that in some of these races, Governor Greg Abbott holding a slight lead over Rep. Gina Hinojosa, and the Democrat James Talarico now leading over Ken Paxton in the closely watched race for U.S. Senate.
This is the first episode in a joint elections series with partners at the Texas Civil Rights Project.
With limited legalese, we welcome two of Texas’ sharpest voting rights attorneys – Sarah Chen with the TCRP, and Emily French with Common Cause Texas – to break down how SCOTUS has impacted your daily life and this year’s election. We discuss how our elections landscape has changed: this year, even as we’ve celebrated the 250th anniversary of our democratic experiment, we also face major rollbacks of protections for our civil rights – and specifically, the equal right to vote – all with our Supreme Court holding the strings.
In the September 6 episode, Republican Tarrant County Commissioner Matt Krause explains why he supported reducing the number of voting sites in his county. In the long run, he thinks it will make elections more efficient, even though he doesn’t know how much money the drastic cuts will really save. The chair of the Dallas County Democratic Party talks about the protests expected at the GOP midterm convention.
And Republican Party of Texas chair D’rinda Randall on why she thinks that convention will energize the GOP and she sets the record straight on those ticket prices.
(Episode from September 6, 2026)
SPORTS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Austin-Travis County EMS transported 13 fans to local hospitals from Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium Saturday, with at least three of those cases tied to heat-related illness, as a 2:30 p.m. kickoff collided with temperatures that hit 102 degrees and felt closer to 105.
The medical toll unfolded as the No. 5 Longhorns cruised past Texas State 59-7 in their season opener, with paramedics seen bringing stretchers through packed concourses as early as the first quarter.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
The cheapest ticket for the Texas vs. Ohio State game this weekend costs roughly $460 at last check.
MLB: Houston’s series with Arizona ended on a sour note Sunday, as the Diamondbacks completed a series win with a 3-2 victory at Minute Maid Park — Arizona’s second win in three games against the Astros this weekend. A few hours later, Texas held off Tampa Bay 8-6 at Globe Life Field, closing out their series with the Rays on a high note despite a late push from the visitors.
Jake Burger homered twice and Ezequiel Duran had his 12th game this season with at least three hits as the Texas Rangers rallied from two four-run deficits to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 8-6 on Sunday.
Nolan Arenado hit a two-run homer to lead the Arizona Diamondbacks to a 3-2 win over the Houston Astros on Sunday. Arizona took two of three games this weekend for its first series win in Houston since 2012. (Associated Press via MSN)
ON THE SCHEDULE
Texas and Houston both have the day off today.
Astros: Houston hits the road for a three-game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia, starting Tuesday, September 8, followed by a weekend set in Tampa Bay against the Rays beginning September 11.
Rangers: Texas heads to the Pacific Northwest for a three-game series against the Mariners in Seattle starting Tuesday, September 8, before wrapping the stretch with a series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks beginning September 11.
AL WEST STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Astros | 73 | 71 |
| 2 | Texas Rangers | 71 | 73 |
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | 67 | 77 |
| 4 | Athletics | 57 | 87 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | 54 | 89 |
The Astros hold a narrow 2-game lead over the Rangers, with a tight race at the top and a big gap down to Seattle in third.
It was so hot Saturday at the Longhorns season opener against Texas State.
The tailgate walk before the game saw Texas faithful brave the heat.
Let’s join them…from a cool place.
