Texas Governor’s Race 2026
Can Gina Hinojosa Break a 30-Year Drought?
While the high-drama Senate showdown between Ken Paxton and James Talarico dominates Texas political headlines, there’s another race worth watching closely: the governor’s contest between incumbent Greg Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. It may be a longer shot for Democrats, but the numbers are closer than many expected — and the dynamics are shifting.
The Candidates
Greg Abbott, who has held the governorship since 2015, is seeking a fourth term that would make him the longest-serving governor in Texas history. He cruised through the Republican primary with over 81% of the vote, and he brings a massive war chest — more than $100 million in campaign cash — along with the full backing of President Donald Trump. Abbott has staked his legacy on border security, school vouchers, and business-friendly governance, and he remains the heavy favorite in a state Trump carried by more than 14 points in 2024.
Gina Hinojosa, 51, is a five-term Austin-area state representative and former civil rights and labor attorney, born and raised in Brownsville in the Rio Grande Valley. She won the Democratic primary with 58.5% of the vote and has built her campaign around kitchen-table issues — public school funding, health care costs, and affordability. She’s been one of Abbott’s sharpest critics in the Texas House, particularly on his school voucher program, and she frames the race as a fight against what she calls the “Abbott corruption tax” — the idea that Texans are paying higher costs while the governor rewards megadonors.
The Polling Picture
The race is closer than the structural landscape might suggest, though Abbott still leads. The RealClearPolitics average puts Abbott up by about 7 points (48.2% to 41.2%).
A Texas Southern University poll from late April through early May found Abbott ahead by 6 points, though it also found roughly a third of voters still didn’t know enough about Hinojosa to form an opinion — a significant opening for her campaign.
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey from April had Abbott leading 48% to 43%, with Hinojosa winning independents and moderates.
Internal polling from the Hinojosa campaign has claimed an even tighter race, including a Public Policy Polling survey showing the two tied in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District — a seat Trump carried by 15 points in 2024.
Abbott’s Vulnerability — and Trump’s Double-Edged Sword
Abbott’s approval ratings have been a persistent soft spot. A UT/Texas Politics Project poll from late 2025 recorded his approval at just 40% — an all-time low in their polling going back to 2014 — with 50% disapproving. A more recent Emerson College poll in January found his approval at 47%, slightly behind Trump’s 48% in the state.
That Trump connection is the central strategic question of the race.
Abbott is a staunch Trump ally and has leaned into that relationship heavily. In a deep-red state, that alignment is a clear asset with the Republican base. But in a midterm environment where Trump’s national approval has sagged — and with Abbott’s own numbers dragged down by voter frustration over rising property taxes, insurance costs, and the fallout from his school voucher push — being tethered to Washington may carry real risks in the suburbs.
Hinojosa launched her first major TV ad in early June, timed to air during the NBA Finals featuring the San Antonio Spurs, striking an optimistic, Texan-pride tone while hammering Abbott on affordability.
No Democrat has won a Texas statewide race since Ann Richards left office in 1995. Forecasters still rate the seat as solidly Republican. But with Abbott stuck below 50% in poll after poll and a restless electorate worried about costs, Hinojosa is betting that this cycle, the map might finally begin to move.
Sources:
- Houston Public Media / Texas Newsroom, March 3, 2026
- Texas Tribune, June 3, 2026
- Texas Tribune, October 15, 2025
- TPR (Texas Public Radio), May 17, 2026
- Newsweek, February 11, 2026
- UT/Texas Politics Project Poll, October 2025
- RealClearPolling, Abbott vs. Hinojosa tracker
- Gina Hinojosa for Texas Governor campaign, April 28, 2026
- Ballotpedia, Texas gubernatorial election 2026
An attempted break-in Saturday evening led to a suspect dying in police custody and multiple officers being placed on administrative leave. Around 6:31 p.m., Austin Police responded to a “prowler hotshot” call on the 7600 block of Grover Avenue, where a suspect was reportedly trying to force his way into a home. APD confirmed the homeowner inside was armed. An investigation into the custody death is ongoing. (KXAN-TV)
A Travis County man has been sentenced to life in prison without parole in connection with aggravated sexual assault and burglary of a habitation with intent to commit a sexual offense
Authorities have identified the body pulled from the Guadalupe River last week as Juliet Elizabeth Watson, a former New Braunfels city councilwoman who had been missing since late May. While the Travis County Medical Examiner’s Office is awaiting toxicology reports to determine the exact cause of death, New Braunfels police report that an initial forensic examination shows no signs of foul play.
Bexar County officials are seeking help in identifying remains found back in December.
The wreckage of defunct Austin builder StoryBuilt continues to widen as a court-appointed receiver targets dozens of the firm’s own backers. A wave of lawsuits filed in state District Courts aims to recover what receivers call “improper payments” distributed to 76 investors before the company’s high-profile collapse. (Austin American-Statesman)
A proposal to temporarily suspend approvals for data centers is back before Hays County leaders.
Travis County authorities on Monday responded to a single-vehicle accident involving a cargo truck carrying ice on Round Mountain Road between Fulkes Road and Great Oaks Boulevard in Leander.
A road construction project in Kyle will force some closures this weekend.
Power outages will take place overnight tomorrow night (June 10) along a section of South Lamar Boulevard as crews upgrade infrastructure.
Austin ISD is holding an open house to discuss boundary changes this evening at Govalle Elementary School.
A local group is calling for a line-by-line breakdown of proposed Austin ISD budget cuts and full transparency about reductions throughout the system.
They’re planning a rally for Thursday.
Some student athletes say they are being singled out as district leaders propose discontinuing water polo to save money as Austin ISD is working to save $181 million in budget cuts.
Austin’s multibillion-dollar light rail project is moving forward, and for some local businesses, the impact is becoming more real.
The city of Austin lost 9.8 billion gallons of water in 2025. But that’s actually less than what the city has lost in years past.
A boil water notice is in effect for Buda residents.
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS) handled 1,808,534 passengers in April, a 3.03% increase compared to April of the previous year. Year-to-date, passenger traffic at the airport is up 5%. (City of Austin)
PASSENGER TRAFFIC BY AIRLINE
A few highlights worth noting: Southwest is in a league of its own, carrying more than twice the passengers of second-place Delta.
JetBlue’s +142.3% surge is by far the largest growth rate, though it starts from a small base.
On the other end, Sun Country (−69%) and Lufthansa (−36.3%) saw the steepest declines, followed by Allegiant (−24.2%).
WEATHER
MONDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
JUNE AT A GLANCE
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
A risk of severe thunderstorms is expected to ramp up again in parts of the Plains and Midwest this afternoon and tonight, stretching from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into southern Canada. (AccuWeather)
State and federal agricultural officials are sounding immediate alarms after a fifth confirmed case of the flesh-eating New World screwworm was detected in Texas, this time expanding deep into the Hill Country in a Gillespie County goat.
In a joint press conference at the Knipling-Bushland Livestock Insects Research Laboratory, Governor Greg Abbott, alongside U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke/Rollins, officially launched an aggressive “War on Screwworm” campaign under the directive to “Inspect, Report, and Protect”. Warning Texans that the destructive parasite outbreak is poised to get worse, state officials are scrambling to enforce strict 12-mile quarantine zones around detections to shield the state’s multi-billion dollar livestock economy.
As the highly invasive parasite continues its migration north, Texas leaders are treating the outbreak as a top-priority defense operation, drafting federal military support and accelerating the deployment of millions of sterile flies to disrupt the pest’s lifecycle before it completely takes root.
U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett condemned the effort to waive environmental laws to enhance border security in Big Bend National Park.
Whither the pristine Big Bend amidst controversy over a border wall? A firsthand account.
(Episode from June 8, 2026)
While being the most MAGA in the Texas primaries was a winning strategy, some political pundits aren’t too sure what it’ll look like going forward. (KUT 90.5)
Ken Paxton‘s former personal lawyer is bucking his high-profile client to endorse Democratic candidate James Talarico for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat.
Meanwhile, the Paxton-Talarico back-and-forth continues.
Texas Republican leaders previously shunned Bo French for his racist social media posts. Now they want him to regulate the state’s oil and gas industries.
(Episode from June 8, 2026)
Not only are they a burden on our water, power, farmland and peace and quiet – massive AI data centers have become the most expensive area of corporate welfare in Texas, and soon across the country.
The Dallas, Austin, Houston and Permian Basin areas have become hotbeds for data center development – but that’s just the beginning.
A Harris County man died while going after someone who tried to steal his son’s vehicle.
KARMELO ANTHONY MURDER TRIAL
A track teammate of Anthony’s testified Monday that he saw Anthony get pushed before stabbing Austin Metcalf, but the prosecutor showed surveillance video that showed the witness was not looking at the bleachers at the time of the stabbing.
Starting July 1, Texas mobile food vendors will only need one state license instead of multiple local permits.
SPORTS
NBA FINALS: Victor Wembanyama has his first NBA Finals win — and the New York Knicks suddenly have a lot of work left to end their 53-year championship drought.
Wembanyama had 32 points, eight rebounds and six assists, carrying the San Antonio Spurs to a 115-111 victory Monday night that cut the Knicks’ lead to 2-1 in the best-of-seven series.
San Antonio is trying to make a first-of-its-kind NBA Finals comeback. (Associated Press)
GAME 4: WEDNESDAY NIGHT
New Yorkers remain confident.
MLB: While the Texas Rangers enjoyed a day off, the Houston Astros enjoyed a win on the road.
Jose Altuve scored the go-ahead run in the 10th inning on a popout to shallow center field, and Houston Astros left fielder Brice Matthews threw out Mike Trout at home plate in the bottom half to preserve a 5-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Monday night. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE
MLS: Austin FC has named Jim Curtin the team’s next head coach. A two-time MLS coach of the year, Curtin led the Philadelphia Union to seven MLS Cup playoff appearances during a decade in charge.
Curtin will become Austin FC’s third head coach in club history but won’t officially begin the job until the end of the MLS season, in December. (Austin FC)
Kacey Musgraves recently turned her highly anticipated album release into an intimate Texas homecoming. To celebrate the drop of her album Middle of Nowhere, she bypassed massive arenas for a surprise three-night residency (May 3–5, 2026) at Gruene Hall in New Braunfels.
