THE EYES OF THE NATION ARE ON THE LONE STAR STATE
Election Day has finally arrived in Texas, and for Democrats up and down the state — and in newsrooms from Washington to New York — this one feels different. After more than three decades of statewide futility, Texas Democrats are heading to the polls today with something they haven’t had in a long time: genuine hope.
At the center of it all is the U.S. Senate race, a contest that could reshape the political map ahead of November and determine which party controls Washington for years to come.
The Democratic Primary: A Dogfight to the Finish
For the first time this century, two Democratic candidates with serious national profiles are squaring off in the Texas Senate primary. U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Representative James Talarico of Austin have waged one of the most competitive, contentious, and closely watched intraparty battles the state has seen in a generation.
The two candidates agree on most policy matters, but they are nearly opposite in temperament, strategy, and vision for how to break the GOP’s iron grip on Texas. Crockett — sharp-tongued, pugnacious, and unapologetically partisan — has argued she can drive turnout among disengaged Democrats who want a fighter willing to go toe-to-toe with Donald Trump. “Right now, in this moment, people know they need a fighter in D.C.,” she told CBS News Texas. “The reason people are so upset with so many Democrats is because they don’t feel like they’ve been fighting.”
Talarico has countered with a more populist, cross-partisan appeal, arguing that winning in a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2024 requires persuading independents and even some soft Republicans to come along. “We can’t help anybody unless we win political power,” he said. “The only way to do that is to bring working people together across all these divisions — partisan divisions, racial divisions, cultural and religious divisions.”
Trump advisor: We are worried about Texas if James Talarico is the nominee. That’s scary. pic.twitter.com/9ZaKizJhzF
— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) March 2, 2026
Their final days on the trail reflected those contrasting styles.
I went to both Jasmine Crockett’s and James Talarico’s final election Eve rallies. These events could not have been more different. My experiences at both made me convinced of who was going to win tomorrow.
— Benjamin Freeman (@benwfreeman1) March 3, 2026
Crockett’s event was a “Community Conversation with Congresswomen… pic.twitter.com/RAgYgyxMGE
Talarico held a packed rally in North Austin that drew hundreds of cheering supporters, while also stumping in the Republican stronghold of Waco — where a line reportedly stretched around the block. Crockett, juggling her congressional duties in Washington during the week, was simultaneously barnstorming Texas, with both candidates at times hitting the same cities within hours of each other.
The race took a wild turn when late-night host Stephen Colbert said CBS blocked an interview with Talarico from airing, citing possible FCC equal-time concerns. Talarico seized on the controversy, claiming it was evidence that the Trump administration feared him. Whatever the truth, the interview — posted to YouTube — racked up millions of views and helped Talarico raise $2.5 million almost overnight, significantly tightening the race in its closing weeks.
The Polls: Too Close to Call
Polling has been all over the map. A University of Texas survey from earlier this month showed Crockett with a commanding 12-point lead. But the final Emerson College/Nexstar poll, released just before Election Day, flipped the script entirely — showing Talarico with a narrow 52%-to-47% edge, well within the margin of error. The Real Clear Politics average of all polls between February 2 and 27 had Talarico ahead by just 1.6 points, 49.3% to 47.7%.
The demographic fault lines are stark. Talarico leads among white voters, Hispanic voters, men, and younger voters under 40. Crockett dominates among Black voters — drawing 80% support in the Emerson poll — and holds an edge with women. As Emerson’s Spencer Kimball noted, “Talarico holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, suggesting the outcome will depend on which group shows up in larger numbers by the end of Tuesday.”
That makes today’s turnout patterns absolutely critical to watch.
Early Voting: A Historic Surge in Travis County
If Democrats needed a reason for optimism, look no further than the early voting numbers coming out of Travis County. According to KUT News, nearly 171,000 Travis County voters cast ballots during the early voting period — the highest turnout for any primary election since 2008. Nearly 19% of all registered voters in the county made it to the polls early.
The partisan split tells an even more dramatic story. Of Travis County’s 920,114 registered voters, 14.8% cast a ballot in the Democratic primary, compared to just 3.77% on the Republican side. Democrats have already surpassed the total Democratic voter turnout of the entire 2022 gubernatorial primary with Election Day still to come.
Statewide, the numbers are equally eye-popping. After eight days of early voting, more than 2.3 million votes had been cast across Texas, with roughly 52.9% in the Democratic primary versus 47.1% in the Republican primary — a remarkable inversion of typical Texas primary dynamics. Compared to the same point in 2022, Democratic early voting was up by more than 211,000 ballots, while Republican early turnout had increased by only around 6,000.
“We’re looking at Democratic primary turnout that’s simply off the charts,” Rice University political scientist Mark Jones told FOX 7 Austin.
But analysts are careful not to overinterpret the surge. St. Edward’s University professor Brian Smith warned that high Democratic primary numbers don’t automatically translate to a general election win. “Unless they actually are able to get rural voters, weak Republicans, independent voters to switch over, it might be a close race, but they’ll still end up losing,” he cautioned. Still, he acknowledged the energy is real: “Higher voter turnout in the primaries means more excitement for the party, and primary voters are general election voters, so more voters now will translate into the fall.”
One particularly striking data point: of the roughly one million Democrats who voted early in the primary, about one-fourth were entirely new to any party primary — a sign that the enthusiasm is pulling in voters beyond the existing partisan base.
The Republican Primary: A Party at War With Itself
While Democrats are unified in their desire to compete, the Texas Republican primary is a full-blown civil war. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, faces a fierce challenge from scandal-clouded Attorney General Ken Paxton and Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt. Cornyn himself has warned that nominating Paxton would be a “massacre” for Republicans up and down the ballot — and national GOP leaders have largely agreed, quietly rallying behind the four-term incumbent.
Polling heading into today shows Paxton with a narrow lead at around 38-40%, Cornyn in the mid-30s, and Hunt pulling around 17%. With no candidate likely to clear the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, most analysts expect the race to continue to a May 26 showdown — almost certainly between Cornyn and Paxton.
The fractured GOP field is, in fact, a major reason Democrats smell blood. Hypothetical general election polling from both the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs and Emerson College shows either Democratic candidate within striking distance of any Republican opponent — an almost unthinkable scenario just a few election cycles ago.
Texas voter:
— Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆 (@RachelBitecofer) March 2, 2026
If someone like me is requesting the Democratic ballot…that should be a real sign for the Republican Party- who I don’t recognize anymore. pic.twitter.com/GDFD8sRWMk
Tomorrow is Primary Election Day, and its results will be decided by the Texans who show up.
— Texas GOP (@TexasGOP) March 2, 2026
It's important to take this responsibility seriously and make your voices heard. That steady engagement is what keeps our elections strong and our process grounded in the will of the… pic.twitter.com/c0djwfHS3T
What the National Media Is Saying
Democrats and Republicans will head to the polls in Texas today for an election that will send both parties a message about what voters want in Trump’s America.
Shane Goldmacher, a national political correspondent for The New York Times, discusses the Senate primary that so many are watching.
Washington can’t stop watching Texas.
The Washington Post framed the Democratic primary as a battle over the soul of the party, noting that Latino voters will likely be the deciding factor in who emerges.
NBC News called the race a window into “how Democrats want to win back power in an era of GOP dominance.”
The Texas Tribune called this Democratic primary the most consequential in at least a generation, quoting none other than Beto O’Rourke: “I was not alive the last time we had this kind of talent in a statewide Democratic primary.”
New York magazine declared Texas “ground zero in the 2026 midterm elections.”
Cook Political Report‘s Jessica Taylor noted that Democrats “need to put one of the other double-digit Trump states in play” to have any shot at reclaiming a Senate majority, and Texas is the most realistic option. The Christian Science Monitor warned readers not to get carried away, cautioning not to “drink the blue Kool-Aid” — winning statewide will require not just Democratic turnout but also a sweep of independents and meaningful GOP defections.
Can Democrats Actually Flip Texas?
The honest answer is: maybe, for the first time in a long time, we can’t rule it out. The math remains daunting. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Trump won the state by double digits just four months ago. But the combination of a deeply divided Republican primary, a potential general election matchup against a scandal-plagued Paxton, and a midterm environment that could punish the party in power has Democrats genuinely believing this is their best opening in decades.
Tonight will give us the first concrete answers. The primary results won’t settle November — but they will tell us who the Democratic standard-bearer will be and whether the energy of this primary can be sustained through the fall.
The ATX Aggregator will be live blogging tonight’s results all night long. Pull up a chair, pour yourself something cold, and stay with us as the returns come in from across Travis County and the great state of Texas. This is going to be a long night — and a historic one.
