Texas Is Waking Up: Democrats Surge to the Polls as Primary Week Arrives
With early voting ending this Friday and Election Day arriving on March 3, Texas politics have never felt more electric — at least not on the Democratic side. Across the Lone Star State, something unusual is happening: Democrats are showing up, and they’re showing up in historic numbers.
According to data from the Texas Secretary of State, nearly 638,000 Democrats had cast early ballots in person or by mail as of Monday — an increase of more than 211,000 compared with the same point in the 2022 midterm primary. Democratic early turnout has outpaced Republican turnout so far, with over 540,000 ballots cast in the Republican primary as of Monday evening.
For context, only 257,680 Democrats had voted at this stage of the 2024 presidential primary. Republicans, meanwhile, stand at roughly 446,000 early ballots, just slightly above their 2022 pace but notably below their 2024 presidential primary turnout. In a stunning reversal, Democrats are now outpacing Republicans in early voting in several of the state’s largest and most competitive counties, including traditionally red Tarrant County, where Democrats hold a 12-point early-vote lead — a first in recent memory.
County-Level Highlights (as of February 23)
| County | Democratic Early Ballots | % of Registered Voters |
|---|---|---|
| Travis | 53,246 | 5.8% |
| Williamson | 23,177 | 5.1% |
| Hays | 9,201 | 4.8% |
| Dallas | ~78,000 (through 6 days) | — |
Sources: CBS Austin, KERA News, FOX 7 Austin.
TRAVIS COUNTY EARLY VOTING
SMU political scientist Mark Jones put it plainly: the Crockett-Talarico Senate race is driving Democratic turnout the way a UT-A&M rivalry game drives stadium ticket sales.
“Previous Democratic primaries were more like SMU vs. UNT,” he told Fox 4 Dallas – Fort Worth.
This one is something else entirely.
The Senate Race: Talarico’s Moment
The Democratic U.S. Senate primary between Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and Austin State Rep. James Talarico has become the most-watched race in the state — and possibly one of the most talked-about Democratic primaries in the country. Just last week, Talarico was scheduled to appear on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, only for CBS to pull the interview citing an FCC equal-time rule interpretation. Colbert posted the interview to YouTube instead, and the resulting controversy was a massive gift to Talarico’s campaign: his team reported raising $2.5 million in a single day following the news.
The polling has since shifted in his favor.
A recent Emerson College/Nexstar poll shows Talarico leading Crockett 47% to 38% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 15% undecided. Talarico has built particularly strong support among Hispanic voters (59%) and white Democrats (57%), while Crockett holds a commanding 80% advantage among Black Democratic primary voters. An earlier University of Houston Hobby School poll, conducted in late January, showed Crockett ahead 47% to 39% — meaning the momentum shift toward Talarico has been recent and rapid.
What has Republicans rattled is not just who wins the primary, but what either candidate could do in November. The Emerson poll shows that in a hypothetical general election matchup, Talarico trails incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn by just three points — 47% to 44% — and is statistically tied with Attorney General Ken Paxton at 46% apiece.
These are numbers that no Democrat running statewide in Texas has seen in a generation.
The GOP Primary: Chaos in the Republican Camp
On the Republican side, the Senate primary is anything but settled. Paxton leads with 38% in the Hobby School poll, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Congressman Wesley Hunt at 17%. A runoff on May 26 appears likely. Cornyn himself has sounded the alarm publicly, warning Republican voters that nominating Paxton — who faces a long trail of ethical controversies — could cost the GOP its Senate seat. The message is striking: a sitting U.S. senator telling his own party’s voters that one of their frontrunners is unelectable.
In the attorney general race, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy leads the crowded Republican field with 33%, followed by state Sen. Mayes Middleton at 23%. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Nathan Johnson leads at 25% with Joe Jaworski close behind at 22% — though 40% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided.
For governor, incumbent Greg Abbott is coasting in the Republican primary, while Gina Hinojosa leads the Democratic field with 37%. General election polling shows Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 49% to 42% — a tighter spread than most would have expected in Texas a few years ago.
What It All Means
The numbers tell a story that Democrats haven’t been able to tell in Texas for decades: the party is energized, competitive, and potentially positioned to make November genuinely competitive. Nearly 65,000 of the early Democratic primary voters, according to Ryan Data and Research, had never previously voted in a Texas primary — a sign that new participants are being drawn in, not just the usual base.
Whether that energy translates into a general election wave remains to be seen. But with James Talarico raising millions off a CBS news controversy, polling within the margin of error against every Republican Senate candidate, and Democratic primary voters outpacing Republicans in deep-red counties like Montgomery, the political ground in Texas is shifting.
Texans may disagree sharply on candidates and policy, but those who’ve cast their ballots in either primary so far share one important thing in common: They’re showing up. (KUT 90.5)
Trump won Midland County by 60 points.
— James Talarico (@jamestalarico) February 24, 2026
But our campaign showed up because we’re not writing off any voter.
It was standing room only. pic.twitter.com/AXzw2p1ePd
What I saw in Allen tonight as the polls closed reminded me that the time is coming — and coming soon — for us Republicans to unite and lock arms like we never have before. #txlege pic.twitter.com/uDTyiWmpHv
— Jeff Leach (@leachfortexas) February 24, 2026
Republicans have every reason to be paying close attention.
So should the rest of the country.
(Early voting ends Friday, February 27. Election Day is Tuesday, March 3.)
PODCAST
Early voting is halfway over for the Travis County primary elections, and . In today’s Tuesday News Roundup, host Nikki DaVaughn is joined by executive producer Eva Ruth Moravec to talk about the turnout…and more.
Another pedestrian fatality in Austin.
Early this morning, a pedestrian was struck and killed on South Congress near William Cannon Boulevard in what’s being called a hit-and-run.
Reports overnight of a shooting north of the city.
No other information has been provided.
The Austin Police Auto Theft Detectives are requesting the community’s assistance in identifying a suspect involved in a recent auto theft incident on February 11.
The Austin Police Criminal Investigation Division is requesting the public’s help with identifying a suspect in connection to a criminal mischief incident that occurred on December 17, 2025.
The man killed at a barbershop by an off-duty Austin police officer has been identified. The Travis County Sheriff’s Office said Jefferson Josue Rodas, of Pflugerville, went into the barbershop and opened fire, striking one employee. (FOX 7 Austin)
PODCAST
This episode of Keep Austin Safe is about Austin 9-1-1 and 3-1-1, how they differ and when to use each service.
(Episode from February 4, 2026)
Hays County authorities are looking for a man in connection with the sexual assault of a child, among other offenses.
Lehman High School in Kyle was on a precautionary lockdown Monday after administrators received reports that someone on campus might have a weapon, according to school officials. An all-clear was later issued after officials determined there was no threat on campus. (Austin-American Statesman)
Austin police on Monday caught up with a wanted fugitive from justice.
Investigators now believe a fire that sparked at an abandoned apartment building in South Austin over the weekend was an act of arson.
Firefighters responded to multiple grass fires along the SH 130 corridor in the Pflugerville area Monday.
uhhh what??
— ATX data (@data_atx) February 23, 2026
Firefighters have been responding to on average 7 homeless fires per day. This is a disaster waiting to happen https://t.co/19exsONAZf
The Austin Fire Department described “multiple explosions” and 15-foot high flames sparked by “encampment activity” near Meymandi’s Tech Ridge apartment complex on December 30, according to the incident report — one of hundreds of fires a KXAN-TV investigation found likely connected to homeless encampments in recent months.
A prescribed burn today at Northeast Metro Park in Pflugerville.
The Capital Metro board on Monday approved a plan to do away with one-day bus passes this summer as the transit agency prepares to replace its onboard cash fareboxes, making formal a change that is poised to affect hundreds of thousands of trips each year. (Austin American-Statesman)
The Downtown Austin Alliance is rolling out a 10-week pilot program offering discounted parking while the convention center is under construction.
The Capital Area Rural Transportation System, or CARTS, is adding two new express commuter bus routes on March 2.
A major lawsuit has been filed against Hutto EDC and city officials.
Houston-based Midway is seeking $300 million in damages over a failed development deal for the Cottonwood Properties. (Community Impact)
WEATHER
MONDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
🔥 Texas Wildfire Update — This Morning
Statewide activity
- 8 wildfires currently active or being monitored in the Texas South Plains and Panhandle region.
- Since Jan. 1: 249 wildfires have burned 5,528 acres statewide.
- Texas remains in Preparedness Level 2 (elevated readiness).
Yesterday, our crews responded to 14 new wildfires, burning 260 acres statewide. Warm, dry weather persists, elevating wildfire risk and the potential for large, hard-to-control fires across the eastern Rolling Plains, Cross Timbers, Hill Country, North, Central & East Texas. pic.twitter.com/k1MuvhmGUE
— Incident Information – Texas A&M Forest Service (@AllHazardsTFS) February 24, 2026
Wildfire response operations remain ongoing— with air support and ground support underway to assist local officials.
— Texas Division of Emergency Management (@TDEM) February 24, 2026
🚒✈️
Even a small spark can spread quickly. Help firefighters: no new starts!🔥 pic.twitter.com/CbH8ZZE5z6
More than 100 people crowded into Monday’s Bastrop County commissioners meeting to voice support or opposition to a proposed resolution backing legislation to designate FM 969 as an honorary memorial for Charlie Kirk. Commissioners took no action after David Glass — who introduced the measure — requested that it be tabled. Glass later told the Austin American-Statesman in an email that he pulled the item because of the volume of feedback he received. (Austin American-Statesman)
A newly revealed 2024 text exchange appears to show that Rep. Tony Gonzales encouraged one of his aides to send him an explicit photo — leading the aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, to push back. Just over a year later, the staffer died after setting herself on fire.
These text messages are disgusting and inexcusable. A Member of Congress. Harassing his own staffer in the middle of the night. Asking for explicit photos. Pressing her on sexual positions. Regina Santos-Aviles told him he was going too far. He did not care. He kept going.
— Rep. Nancy Mace (@RepNancyMace) February 23, 2026
She…
(Episode from February 20, 2026)
Joshua Orta planned to testify against the Department of Homeland Security in the killing of Ruben Ray Martinez.
Orta was a passenger in the car when Martinez was fatally shot last year by a federal immigration agent. Before his death, Ortiz gave a lengthy statement to lawyers for the slain man’s family disputing the government’s version of events. (Houston Chronicle)
NEW: According to Texas authorities, video evidence calls into question ICE's own accounting of the fatal shooting of Ruben Ray Martinez. A US citizen was shot and killed by ICE agents and then ICE and DPS attempted to cover it up for nearly a year. This demands a full… https://t.co/B1k2RjCgim
— Joaquin Castro (@JoaquinCastrotx) February 24, 2026
The Texas Comptroller’s Office announced that more than 123,000 students applied in the first weeks of Texas’ new private school voucher program, far exceeding the number of spots available in its inaugural year. (FOX 7 Austin)
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is urging the Texas Department of State Health Services not to license Camp Mystic for the 2026 summer season.
Parents of nine campers and counselors who died in last summer’s deadly Camp Mystic flooding have filed a federal lawsuit accusing Texas health officials of approving the camp’s license despite safety violations required under state law.
The lawsuit, filed Monday in federal court, claims the agency licensed Camp Mystic despite the camp’s failure to maintain a written emergency response plan that includes plans to evacuate every occupied building, a requirement under Texas law for youth camps. Instead, according to the complaint, the camp’s emergency instructions directed campers to remain inside cabins unless told to evacuate.
Violence is escalating across parts of Mexico following a major military operation, leaving Americans (and Texans) watching conditions closely.
The United States has been building up a military presence around Iran for weeks, even as negotiators from both countries plan to meet later this week in hopes of finding a diplomatic solution to the escalating tensions.
🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨
— Stan Gerdes (@StanGerdesforTX) February 23, 2026
President @realDonaldTrump is coming to Texas this Friday!
This means we’re SHIFTING our Lockhart rally with Governor @GregAbbott_TX to 8:30 AM – bright and early for maximum impact on the last day of early voting!
Come out strong, bring your friends &… pic.twitter.com/ZFyt7MPfZg
Texas Republicans on Monday were already changing their campaign plans in anticipation of Trump’s visit, with Smithville state Rep. Stan Gerdes saying on X that he was rescheduling an event with Gov. Greg Abbott because Trump “is coming to Texas this Friday.” (Texas Tribune)
SPORTS
NBA: The San Antonio Spurs have won nine-in-a-row.
Victor Wembanyama had 21 points, 17 rebounds and six blocks, Devin Vassell scored 28 and the San Antonio Spurs beat the Detroit Pistons 114-103 in a potential NBA Finals preview Monday night. (Associated Press)
Jabari Smith Jr. had 31 points and nine rebounds and Amen Thompson scored 20 points as the Houston Rockets beat the Utah Jazz 125-105 on Monday night. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE
An off night for the Spurs and Rockets. The Dallas Mavericks are in snowy New York tonight.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: Tre White scored a season-high 23 points and No. 14 Kansas bounced back from a surprising defeat with a 69-56 victory over No. 5 Houston on Monday night. (FOX Sports)
ON THE SCHEDULE
TONIGHT
In this episode of Texas Country Reporter, J.B. travels from Houston to El Paso to Austin to meet Texans putting their own twist into life in Texas.
