Texas Primary Showdowns: Three Races to Watch as March 3 Approaches
With early voting beginning February 17 and less than a month until Texas’ March 3 primary, the state’s most competitive races are taking shape—and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
U.S. Senate: A Three-Way Republican Brawl
The marquee contest is the Republican Senate primary, where incumbent John Cornyn faces stiff challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Recent polling shows a razor-thin race with no clear winner in sight. An Emerson College poll from mid-January found Paxton at 27%, Cornyn at 26%, and Hunt at 16%, with 29% still undecided. Neither Cornyn nor Paxton appears positioned to avoid a May runoff.
The race represents a battle between the GOP establishment and its hard-right faction. Paxton has led among “Trump Movement” voters while Cornyn leads among “Traditional Republicans”, though the insurgent conservative wing has been gaining ground. President Trump’s endorsement could prove decisive, but he has yet to back either candidate.
In a shocking announcement, John Cornyn proudly announces he has over 100 supporters after 4 terms in the senate. https://t.co/amHXaI64jY
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) February 4, 2026
Senator @JohnCornyn is the only electable Republican in this primary, a proven conservative with real experience and results who votes with President Trump more than 99% of the time. Crooked Ken Paxton is the "antithesis of public integrity" who abuses his office for cheap… pic.twitter.com/JlT0y9Qxaw
— Team Cornyn (@TeamCornyn) February 4, 2026
Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are both deeply unpopular — even within the Republican party.
— Luke Warford 🚂 (@LukeWarfordTX) February 3, 2026
Paxton is cartoonishly corrupt, and Cornyn continues to waver on core GOP principles.
Facing either, a strong Democratic candidate will certainly make this year interesting in Texas. pic.twitter.com/PvqJ40ZJ9f
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are in a competitive fight. Recent polls show conflicting results—an Emerson survey gave Talarico a 9-point edge, while other polling suggests a dead heat. With Democrats hoping to flip their first statewide seat since 1994, both candidates are emphasizing electability.
Great segment from @ForecasterEnten about why the GOP is getting more worried about the Senate.
— Jaron Zhou (@ZhouJaron) February 6, 2026
In Texas, the controversial AG, Ken Paxton, is favored to beat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the primary, and GOP general election chances have been sliding.
Ofc, the other side… pic.twitter.com/A5yK4VZBdY
Trump advisor: We are worried about Texas if James Talarico is the nominee. That’s scary. pic.twitter.com/HFYAM8asDz
— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) February 7, 2026
Talarico was accused this week of making racially charged remarks against his former rival, Colin Allred, with Allred posting a video to social media on Monday claiming Talarico called him a “mediocre black man.”
Hey 👋🏽 @jamestalarico — don’t come for me unless I send for you. pic.twitter.com/ryVA6irNWY
— Colin Allred (@ColinAllredTX) February 2, 2026
Allred, a former U.S. congressman from the Dallas area, announced his bid for Senate before Talarico last year, but dropped out after Crockett entered the race in December.
NEW: At Chorizo & Menudo breakfast in Dallas, supporter of @jamestalarico asks him about the dust-up w/fellow Democrat @ColinAllredTX that went viral. Talarico: “The job of a leader is to try to lower the temperature, try to remind us all we are on the same team…”@CBSNewsTexas pic.twitter.com/lIo056nc53
— Jack Fink (@cbs11jack) February 7, 2026
PODCASTS
Not even 48 hours after their historic win in Fort Worth, Texas Democrats were already at each other’s throats in the US Senate primary with former Rep. Colin Allred all but calling Rep. James Talarico a racist and a pro-Talarico group slamming Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the first attack ads of the party’s nominating contest. But are these the nastiest attacks ever seen in Texas? The boss, Harvey Kronberg, and Current Revolt founder Tony Ortiz join the discussion. Plus, we’ll take you to South Texas where a Trump made the rounds trying to pump up Latino Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
(Episode from February 6, 2026)
A look at look at three big stories in Texas generating national attention as election season heats up in the state: the special election for Senate District 9, Colin Allred’s surprising re-emergence in the Democratic Senate nomination race, and Donald Trump’s public musings about endorsing in the Republican Senate primary.
(Episode from February 5, 2026)
Governor: Abbott’s Commanding Lead
Governor Greg Abbott faces nominal primary opposition as he seeks an unprecedented fourth term. Abbott reported a staggering $105.7 million on hand, dwarfing all challengers. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa leads a crowded field with 29% support, though nearly six in ten voters were undecided.
The state’s largest labor group, the Texas AFL-CIO, is backing Democrat Gina Hinojosa. https://t.co/SxUqXyhonj
— Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) February 7, 2026
With Abbott’s massive war chest and name recognition, the general election will be the true test.
Texas is the only state to detain little children and their parents because Greg Abbott made it happen.
— Gina Hinojosa (@GinaHinojosaTX) January 31, 2026
Get ICE out.
Get Abbott out. pic.twitter.com/oYGuZQQC8k
Attorney General: Roy Leading the Pack
With Paxton vacating the office to run for Senate, the Republican race for Attorney General features U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, state Senators Joan Huffman and Mayes Middleton, and former DOJ official Aaron Reitz.
Proud to have Paxton’s endorsement to be the next AG!
— Aaron Reitz (@aaron_reitz) February 5, 2026
“Reitz is a fighter. He fought as a Marine in Afg. He fights the left here at home. Trump called him ‘a warrior for our Constitution.’ Ds want to destroy TX. He’s the battle-tested conservative we need to fight back and win.” pic.twitter.com/tbnHMMVu8V
Multiple polls show Roy commanding roughly 40% support, well ahead of Huffman and Middleton, though a runoff remains possible. The Democratic primary sees 78% of voters undecided between attorney Tony Box, former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, and state Sen. Nathan Johnson.
The Tarrant County Shocker
In what was a major political upset, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss for the open Texas Senate District 9 seat in Tarrant County last weekend, the largest Republican county in the nation.
It was, as some pundits put it, a political earthquake.
The Democratic victory in Tarrant County on Jan. 31 was a 9.5-level earthquake through Texas’ political apparatus. How did it happen? pic.twitter.com/zDmnRDan7B
— Texas Democrats (@texasdemocrats) February 6, 2026
Trump and the GOP are so unpopular that Democrats are flipping deep-red seats in Texas. pic.twitter.com/3jmd8PuvNw
— Robert Reich (@RBReich) February 7, 2026
Turnout: The Wild Card
Primary turnout will be crucial in determining these outcomes. Historically, participation has been dismal—in 2022, only 3 million Texans cast primary ballots, just 17% of registered voters. With high-profile races and intense national interest in Senate control, both parties are hoping for increased participation. However, if history is any guide, a small fraction of Texas voters will ultimately decide who advances to November.
As the calendar turns to mid-February, these races remain fluid. With so many undecided voters and the possibility of runoffs in May, Texas’ primary season is just getting started.
Traffic has returned to normal in South Austin after a wreck late last night.
A major accident last night just after 8:00 p.m. was reported in Dessau near Parmer Lane.
(Video: Maria Karla Carrero)
Earlier Saturday, Mustang Ridge officials responded to an oil spill on 183 NB near Von Quintus.
Under the new guidance, campus administrators and Austin ISD police will monitor student protest walkouts that remain within 300 feet of a school building, while law enforcement will assume responsibility once students move farther from campus, according to the district.
Students in Hays County have resorted to protesting after school hours.
A small group of protestors met at the Texas Capitol on Saturday, and they say they will continue to spread their message, calling for an end to ICE operations.
Voters in Leander went to the polls Saturday in a Special Election for a new mayor after former Mayor Christine DeLisle resigned last year. A new city council member was also chosen.
Bexar County authorities are on the lookout for a shooting suspect who is considered armed and dangerous.
Also out of Bexar County…
A beautiful day greeted thousands of people and city officials to the opening of the new long-awaited Wishbone Bridge and Unity Underpass.
Meanwhile, the I-35 pedestrian bridge is closing.
WEATHER
SATURDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar has reported an outbreak at Camp East Montana, a massive 5,000-bed tent facility located on the Fort Bliss Army base. Following a visit to the site on Friday, Escobar disclosed that two active cases of tuberculosis and 18 cases of COVID-19 have been identified among the detained population.
The city of El Paso has since confirmed these figures, raising concerns about health conditions at the hastily constructed federal detention center. (Texas Tribune)
🚨 I just conducted an unannounced visit to Camp East Montana, the largest, most expensive immigration detention facility in the country.
— Rep. Veronica Escobar (@RepEscobar) February 6, 2026
While the private corporation continues to pocket our tax dollars, it's clear the conditions are only getting worse. pic.twitter.com/4pBLaxZHTZ
The Department of Homeland Security plans to have physical wall barriers running from Fort Quitman, which is outside of Sierra Blanca, to Colorado Canyon, which is about 175 miles of wall. (Texas Standard)
Texas becomes the first state with a strict abortion ban to provide doctors with guidelines on exceptions. We’ll dig into what’s in those guidelines with ProPublica reporter Cassandra Jaramillo.
Coming soon to the pristine spaces of the Big Bend: Construction of a border wall. We’ll look at how many locals are trying to push back.
And in a state that loves football, why the Bad Bunny halftime show will be the main event in many Texas homes this Super Bowl Sunday.
(Episode from February 5, 2026)
An investigation into jail mental competency delays, along with updates to the topic still playing out today across Texas.
(Episode from February 7, 2026)
SPORTS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: Sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis posted a game-high 27 points to lead Texas (15-9, 6-5 SEC) to a 79-68 victory over Ole Miss (11-12, 3-7 SEC) in Moody Center on Saturday afternoon. This marked the first time since the Longhorns joined the SEC prior to the start of the 2024-25 season that Texas has recorded three consecutive league victories. (Texas Longhorns)
NEXT ON THE SCHEDULE
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 14
Thomas Haugh scored 22 points and No. 17 Florida beat Texas A&M 86-67 on Saturday night in a showdown for the Southeastern Conference lead. (Associated Press)
Kingston Flemings scored 11 of his 19 points in the second half to help No. 8 Houston beat No. 16 BYU 77-66 on Saturday night. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE TODAY
NBA: The Houston Rockets get a win Saturday in Oklahoma City while the San Antonio Spurs took care of the hapless Dallas Mavericks.
Tari Eason scored a season-high 26 points, and the Houston Rockets beat the short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder 112-106 on Saturday. (Associated Press)
Stephon Castle had a career-high 40 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists to lead the Spurs to their fourth straight win, a 138-125 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. (Associated Press)
Dallas, Houston and San Antonio are all idle today and get to enjoy the Super Bowl.
For football fans nationwide, this year’s Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks is inherently exciting. For non-football fans like the Daily host Michael Barbaro — not so much.
In this episode of “The Sunday Daily,” Natalie Kitroeff — who is a big Philadelphia Eagles fan — makes it her mission to draw Barbaro and other non-football fans into the excitement and drama of this year’s matchup through storytelling. She talks with two reporters who cover the teams for The Athletic: Chad Graff, a senior writer covering the Patriots; and Michael-Shawn Dugar, who covers the Seahawks.
On this Super Bowl Sunday, we ask the question:
Why Is There No Room for a Third NFL Team in Texas?
