Beyond Paxton and Abbott: The Texas Races That Could Surprise on Nov. 3
Early voting ends Oct. 30; Election Day is Nov. 3. Data current as of Oct. 25, 2026.
The Senate and governor’s races are drawing the cameras. But the most revealing tests of whether Texas is shifting may be farther down the ballot, in obscure statewide offices, South Texas congressional seats and a handful of legislative districts.
The Railroad Commission: a sleeper race
The Railroad Commission regulates the state’s oil and gas industry, and its elections rarely get attention.
This year is different.
A University of Houston Hobby School poll (Oct. 10-14, ±2.2%) has Republican Bo French leading Democrat Jon Rosenthal just 45% to 43%, with 10% undecided.
French, who ousted incumbent Jim Wright in the primary, drew bipartisan criticism for a social media post targeting UT students. Karl Rove, a longtime GOP strategist, said he would vote for the Democrat. Rosenthal, a former oil field engineer and four-term state representative, has pitched himself as a “drill, baby, drill” Democrat.
French still holds more cash on hand, and a PAC tied to oilman Tim Dunn gave him $100,000.
Other statewide offices: Republicans lead, with room to move
No statewide Democrat has won since 1994, and Republicans lead every down-ballot race in the Hobby poll. But margins vary, and 8% to 12% of voters remain undecided in each.
The attorney general’s seat is open: state Sens. Mayes Middleton (R) and Nathan Johnson (D) are competing to succeed Ken Paxton.
Comptroller has an unusual wrinkle, since Republican Don Huffines was appointed to the job August 1 and now faces state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt (D).
South Texas: where the map meets the mood
Republicans redrew congressional lines to gain up to five seats. Instead, several South Texas districts have become competitive as Latino voters sour on President Trump, though the Texas Tribune notes that doesn’t mean they are sold on Democrats.
| District | Candidates | Trump 2024 margin | Latest read |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX-15 | Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Bobby Pulido (D) | +18 | Pulido 50%-45% (Aug. TSU poll) |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) | +10 | Cuellar 45%-34% (Aug. TSU poll) |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Eric Flores (R) | +10 | Gonzalez 45%-42% (Aug. TSU poll) |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | +10 | Cook: Lean Republican |
| TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs. Brandon Herrera (R) | +15 | Herrera +2 in polls |
The August survey is the most recent district-level polling found, so treat it as a snapshot.
The Legislature
Republicans hold an 88-62 majority in the Texas House, and Democrats need 14 flips for control.
Watch San Antonio’s HD 118 and HD 121, Corpus Christi’s HD 34, and Dallas County seats held by Reps. Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button. In Senate District 9 near Fort Worth, Democrat Taylor Rehmet, who flipped a Trump +17 seat in a special election, defends it in a November rematch.
The Trump Effect
Donald Trump’s favorability ratings in Texas remain a central dynamic shaping the state’s political landscape leading into the November 3 midterm elections. Polling heading into late October shows 46% of Texas voters viewing Trump favorably compared to 54% unfavorably.
This net-negative rating reflects broader economic concerns—particularly inflation, healthcare costs, and energy prices—that have energized Democratic voters while creating headwinds for Republican candidates.
The resulting “Trump Effect” is driving a notable boost in early voting turnout across major suburban and urban corridors, as highly motivated Democratic voters seek to capitalize on tight margins in high-stakes statewide contests like the U.S. Senate race.
At the same time, Trump’s core base of conservative voters continues to provide strong foundational support for down-ballot Republicans in rural districts.
Consequently, his polar political footprint makes his brand a double-edged sword: a vital engine for Republican primary mobilization that simultaneously complicates general election appeals in increasingly competitive suburban battlegrounds.
The caveat
These are single polls with sizable undecided shares, and down-ballot races tend to follow the top of the ticket. Still, the contests above may show whether Texas’s political shift is real or just a headline.
Sources:
- University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs, “Texas Votes 2026” (Oct. 2026): https://www.uh.edu/hobby/texas2026/
- Texas Tribune, “Texas congressional races 2026: Who is running and what to know” (Sept. 30, 2026): https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/30/texas-congress-house-elections-2026-midterms/
- Texas Tribune, “These are the most competitive November races up and down Texas’ midterm ballot” (Oct. 6, 2026): https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/06/texas-2026-elections-competitive-races-us-congress-state-legislature/
- Texas Tribune, “Jon Rosenthal outraises Bo French” (Oct. 6, 2026): https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/06/jon-rosenthal-bo-french-fundraising-election-2026-texas-railroad-commission/
- Texas Tribune, Railroad Commission election guide (Sept. 15, 2026): https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/15/texas-railroad-commission-election-2026-bo-french-jon-rosenthal/
- San Antonio Report, “Here are the top races to watch this November 2026 election” (Oct. 14, 2026): https://sanantonioreport.org/top-races-to-watch-this-november-2026-election/
- Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Center, “In Texas’s Most Competitive Districts, Democrats Now Lead Where Trump Won Big” (Aug. 26, 2026): https://www.jordanresearchcenter.org/publications/tsusouthtexascds2026
- TexPolls, “2026 Texas General Election: All 25 Races”: https://texpolls.com/races
Saturday marked the midway point of the 12-day early voting period in Texas.
Day 6 Summary – Early Voting in Travis County (Saturday, October 24)
On Day 6, turnout accounted for 2.68% of the county’s 948,575 registered voters. The breakdown for the day is as follows:
- In-Person Early Voters: 24,575
- Limited Ballots: 122
- Mail Ballots Received: 753
- Day 6 Total Ballots Cast: 25,450
Midway Point Summary (Days 1–6 Cumulative: Oct 19 – Oct 24)
By the end of Day 6—marking the exact midway point of the 12-day early voting period (October 19 through October 30)—a cumulative total of 237,489 ballots had been cast, representing 25.04% of registered voters in Travis County.
| Voting Category | Cumulative Total |
| In-Person Voters | 223,428 |
| Limited Ballots | 612 |
| Mail Ballots Received | 13,449 |
| Total Cumulative Turnout | 237,489 |
Highest Turnout Early Voting Locations (Through Day 6)
- Bee Cave City Hall: 9,314 voters
- Ben Hur Shrine Center: 9,256 voters
- PfISD Rock Gym: 8,521 voters
- Austin Energy Headquarters: 7,895 voters
- Typhoon Texas Waterpark: 7,745 voters
WILLIAMSON COUNTY
A major collision in the 18,000 block of Camino Real in Mustang Ridge just after midnight.
Austin’s airport is expecting high passenger traffic volume tonight and into Monday.
One of Austin’s biggest holiday traditions is already standing over Zilker Park.
WEATHER
SATURDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST / AUSTIN, TEXAS
Texas A&M Forest Service received 6 new requests for wildfire assistance on Saturday, burning 123 acres. All six of the blazes were contained and are no longer active.
The burn ban status for Central Texas counties (based on Texas A&M Forest Service reporting) breaks down as follows:
Counties Currently UNDER a Burn Ban
These counties have an active order prohibiting or restricting outdoor burning, brush clearing, and open fires:
- Travis County
- Llano County
- Milam County
- Lee County
- Comal County
Counties Currently WITHOUT a Burn Ban
These counties do not currently have a active countywide burn ban, though standard Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) outdoor burning regulations still apply:
- Williamson County
- Hays County
- Bastrop County
- Caldwell County
- Blanco County
- Burnet County
- Gillespie County
- Mason County
- Fayette County
Note: Conditions can change rapidly during dry weather. Always verify with your local County Fire Marshal or Sheriff’s Department before starting any outdoor burning.
Sunset will arrive before 5 p.m. across many parts of the United States on Sunday, November 1, bringing a sudden change to the evening hours as clocks “fall back” for the end of daylight saving time. (AccuWeather)
Here we go.
Early voting is underway. And Democrats appear to be showing up with their enthusiasm. But what do they suggest?
And as the campaigns make their final statewide pushes across Texas, we’re sitting down for a pint with a Democratic and a Republican consultant to grade the campaigns and look at the final ten days of 2026 election.
A conversation with Texas GOP Vice Chair David Covey. They discuss Republican unity, legislative priorities, and why Covey believes this election is the most important yet.
James Talarico weighs in on previous U.S. Senate races. Plus, Republican Mayes Middleton talks the Texas AG race, and the Dallas Police Association President discusses the future of City Hall.
A closer look at what early voter data in Texas could reveal. Plus, what analysts are focusing on in the Talarico-Paxton race.
Candidates for U.S. senate sweep through Central Texas.
In a 10–7 ruling on Friday, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals held that thousands of ICE detainees in Texas cannot request bond hearings, regardless of how long their deportation proceedings take. The court determined that Congress designed the law to restrict release options—even for long-term U.S. residents with no criminal records who consistently reported for ICE check-ins.
Fort Bend County Commissioners approved an economic incentive package on Thursday for a proposed Tesla solar power manufacturing facility anchored in the southeastern portion of the county. If Fort Bend is picked by the trillion-dollar-valued company headed by Elon Musk, the project could bring substantial job and wage creation for the county. (Houston Public Media)
Hundreds of Texans suffer extreme surgery errors with little recourse.
State data reveals Texas hospitals and surgery centers report around 200 errors each year. That’s the reported number. The real number, patient safety advocates say, is likely higher. (KERA)
A North Texas teacher allegedly sent students some seriously bizarre digital messages. Then, according to federal prosecutors, he told the FBI the students were the ones sending them. (Chron)
DIESEL PRICES IN TEXAS
AAA GAS PRICES
An infested zone was established in Hudspeth County Saturday in association with a New World Screwworm detection in two bovines.
The number of Texans receiving food stamps has hit a 17-year low as the federal government tightens eligibility and the state struggles to process applications in a timely manner. (Texas Tribune)
San Antonio’s historic Alamo is undergoing a $400 million transformation, bringing new exhibits, public spaces and attractions to one of Texas’ most visited destinations.
SPORTS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: No. 19/18 Texas secured its second conference win defeating No. 7/7 Ole Miss 34-27, in front of 104,306 fans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday night.
To take the lead after a 24-point deadlock, senior Arch Manning faked a handoff and took a one-yard rush into the endzone with 8:04 remaining in the contest.
Manning finished with 212 passing yards, threw one passing touchdown, and ran for two scores.
With a strong defensive performance, the Longhorns (5-2, 2-2 SEC) held the Rebels to 138 yards and restricted them to a field goal in the first two quarters.
The Longhorns survive a wild night to keep their College Football Playoff dreams alive. Can Arch Manning steady this roller-coaster offense down the stretch?
NEXT SATURDAY
TEXAS A&M / TEXAS TECH / TEXAS STATE / HOUSTON
MLS: Myrto Uzuni scored twice as Austin FC overcame a deficit to defeat Sporting Kansas City 2-1 on Saturday night at Sporting Park. (Austin FC)
Austin FC will play its 16th home match and 32nd match overall of the 2026 MLS regular season against Real Salt Lake on Wednesday, October 28 at 7:30 p.m. CT.
NBA: It was a dominant night for Texas basketball as the San Antonio Spurs locked down a 122–106 victory over the Dallas Mavericks, propelled by Victor Wembanyama’s 23 points and four blocks alongside rookie Dylan Harper’s 22-point performance. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets stayed hot to open the season, moving to 3-0 after pulling away for a 121–114 win over the Atlanta Hawks behind Kevin Durant’s team-high 22 points and strong bench contributions from Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason.
Victor Wembanyama had 23 points, seven rebounds and four blocks, Dylan Harper scored 22 points and the San Antonio Spurs beat the Dallas Mavericks 122-106 on Saturday night for their first victory of the season. (Associated Press via MSN)
Kevin Durant’s 22 points, Reed Sheppard’s five threes, and a resilient team effort saw the Houston Rockets spoil the Atlanta Hawks’ home opener with a 121-114 victory Saturday night in Atlanta. (Associated Press via MSN)
ON THE SCHEDULE
- Houston Rockets: Return home to host the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, October 26, at 7:30 PM CT at Toyota Center.
- Dallas Mavericks: Head south for a road test against the Miami Heat on Monday, October 26, at 6:30 PM CT at Kaseya Center.
- San Antonio Spurs: Host the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday, October 27, at 7:00 PM CT at Frost Bank Center.
Looking further down the week, Texas rivals Houston and Dallas will go head-to-head on Friday, October 30, at American Airlines Center in an early NBA Cup group stage clash.
NHL: The Dallas Stars host the New York Islanders tonight at the American Airlines Center, with puck drop scheduled for 5:00 PM CT. Dallas returns home looking to build on their recent victory over the Winnipeg Jets, while the Islanders drop in for an early cross-conference battle in North Texas.
AUTO RACING: Teen sensation Kimi Antonelli leads the Formula 1 field into the Circuit of The Americas today, lining up on pole position for the United States Grand Prix after a stunning qualifying run that held off Red Bull’s Max Verstappen by less than two-tenths of a second.
NFL: Lone Star NFL action takes center stage: today, the Houston Texans play host to the New York Giants at NRG Stadium, while tomorrow night, the Dallas Cowboys head to Philadelphia for a high-stakes divisional showdown against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Looked over by most, and a nuisance to many, the Yaupon holly plant can easily be found across Texas and the Gulf Coast states. It’s the only caffeinated plant native to North America, and it’s steeped in history.
Yaupon is sacred to native tribes across Texas and often used in ceremonies. Jason Ellis discovered the plant in a book, quickly noticing it across the pine forests of Bastrop. He decided to create a business making tea, using the Yaupon he removes from properties to mitigate fires and help native habitat.
Now, several companies are introducing Yaupon to tea drinkers across the state.
