The Battle for Texas: Inside the Senate Race That Could Reshape the GOP
The Lone Star State is at the center of one of the most consequential Senate races in the country heading into 2026, and the drama is only beginning.
On May 26, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will square off in a Republican primary runoff — a bruising intraparty brawl that has already shattered spending records and exposed deep fault lines within the Texas GOP.
How Did We Get Here?
In the March 3 primary, Cornyn edged Paxton by less than a percentage point — 41.7% to 41% — with Rep. Wesley Hunt a distant third at 13.4%. Neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, setting up what many observers have called one of the most consequential primaries in the country.
The Runoff Numbers
The post-primary polling has not been kind to Cornyn. A Quantus Insights survey conducted in late March showed Paxton leading Cornyn 48.8% to 41.3%, with 9.9% undecided.
Nearly 58% of Wesley Hunt‘s former supporters have consolidated behind Paxton, and the electorate appears largely settled — 88.1% of respondents said they were certain to vote.
A separate poll commissioned by Democratic nominee James Talarico‘s campaign painted an even starker picture: Paxton led Cornyn by a wider 53% to 37% margin among likely Republican runoff voters, and held a significantly stronger favorability rating — 64% favorable compared to Cornyn’s 45%, with Cornyn carrying a 47% unfavorable rating.
TALARICO VS. CORNYN
TALARICO VS. PAXTON
The structural reason for Paxton’s advantage is straightforward. As political consultant Bill Miller put it: “The runoff will be the hardcore primary voters, and that’s his base — so he’ll be extraordinarily difficult to defeat in a runoff.”
The General Election Question
Here’s where things get genuinely complicated for Republicans. Some of the first general election polling, conducted by Public Policy Polling just days after the primary, showed Democratic nominee James Talarico leading both Cornyn and Paxton. Pollsters noted that the Texas Senate race will be highly competitive, driven by Talarico’s broad approval and the two Republicans’ general election liabilities.
Talarico’s strength isn’t a fluke. A University of Texas poll found that both Cornyn and Paxton were underwater in their favorability ratings — by 8 and 10 points respectively — while Talarico carried a net favorability of +18 points. Earlier Emerson College polling found that in a hypothetical matchup, Talarico trailed Cornyn by just 3 points, 47% to 44%, but was statistically tied with Paxton at 46% each. In other words, Cornyn — despite his primary struggles — remains the stronger general election candidate.
Why This Race Matters Nationally
The stakes extend well beyond Texas. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but they see an opening due to the divisive Republican primary, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, and Trump’s negative approval ratings in the state. Control of the Senate could hinge on whether Democrats can finally crack Texas’s Republican stronghold.
Many national Republicans and allies of Senate Majority Leader John Thune believe Cornyn is their safest bet for retaining the seat. A Paxton victory in the runoff could hand Democrats their best shot at a Texas Senate seat in a generation — and potentially tip the chamber’s balance of power.
For both parties, the May 26 runoff isn’t just a Texas story. It’s a national one.
Sources:
- Quantus Insights poll, late March 2026
- Public Policy Polling, post-primary general election survey, March 2026
- University of Texas poll, favorability ratings
- Emerson College poll, general election matchup data
- Axios, Texas Senate primary runoff reporting
- Bill Miller, Texas political consultant, as quoted in primary runoff coverage
Sunday was a rough day on Central Texas roads.
Austin Police received a call just after 6:30 a.m. Sunday for a two-vehicle collision in the 9400 block of Research Boulevard on the southbound side, just south of North Capital of Texas Highway.
The crash involved a motorcycle and a vehicle; the motorcyclist died at the scene, and one other person was taken to the hospital with possible serious injuries. APD also noted that as many as four vehicles may have been involved. Southbound US-183 was shut down from Capital of Texas Highway to Mopac for several hours, with traffic diverted at the Capital of Texas Highway exit. Two additional adults were evaluated by EMS but refused transport.
Then just after 7:30 p.m., Austin-Travis County EMS responded to a collision involving a vehicle and a motorcycle at 7100 183 Toll Northbound at 6:25 p.m. Sunday. One adult was transported to Dell Seton Medical Center with critical, life-threatening injuries.
A dumpster fire was reported at Central Market on South Lamar last night.
🚨Breaking: @austinfiredept puts out large dumpster fire in Central Market shopping center. It took them more than 30 minutes to put the smoldering trash out. Thank you AFD for saving the day. pic.twitter.com/CxiYAAPDN5
— Austin Videos (@ATXVideos) March 30, 2026
The mural of César Chávez that had long served as a landmark welcoming visitors to East Austin is gone, painted over last week and leaving the side of a building at the corner of Cesar Chavez Street and Waller Street bare. The mural, which had been on the building since 2023, was painted over after multiple sexual abuse allegations were made against the late Civil Rights leader.
Reps. Ellen Troxclair and Erin Zweiner discuss the governmental oversight committee and the impacts of data centers in Hays County.
PODCAST
The Texas Legislature has just been tasked with getting a handle on data centers, but with more than 70 data centers in the area, is it too late? Host Nikki DaVaughn is joined by , the Executive Director and Secretary Treasurer of Texas State Building and Constructions Trades Council, to find out how these massive, necessary facilities are being built, what kinds of jobs they might provide, and what might be done to regulate them.
TSA agents expected to receive a paycheck today and will be paid indefinitely during the ongoing partial government shutdown.
Only one large wildfire of note this weekend and that is in North Texas in Montague County where an 88-acre blaze is nearly contained.
A burn ban is currently in effect for the unincorporated areas of Travis County and has been extended to remain in effect through April 28, 2026, due to dry conditions.
WEATHER
SUNDAY’S HIGH / LOW TEMPERATURES
AUSTIN-BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CAMP MABRY
5-DAY FORECAST /AUSTIN, TEXAS
Tuesday marks the final day for Texas families to apply for Education Savings Accounts after a judge extended the deadline following recent lawsuits filed.
| Fuel Grade | Average Price (per gallon) |
| Regular | $3.586 |
| Mid-Grade | $4.007 |
| Premium | $4.387 |
| Diesel | $4.966 |
Recent Spike: Prices in Austin have risen by roughly $0.90 over the last year, with a notable surge occurring just within the last few weeks.
Comparison: Austin’s regular average is slightly lower than the overall Texas state average of $3.61, and significantly lower than the national average, which is currently nearing $3.99.
Cheaper Options: While the average is $3.59, some local stations (particularly around South Austin and neighborhood spots like West Gate Blvd) were still reporting prices closer to $3.10 – $3.20 for cash payments earlier this week.
War Pushes Gas Prices Near $4 a Gallon
James Henson and Joshua Blank survey the early signs of the developing general election campaign in Texas as well as lingering primary dynamics in both parties. Topics include the early Republican attacks on James Talarico, the rock throwing between Acting Comptroller Hancock and AG Paxton, and efforts to test the issue environment in the general election.
(Episode from March 26, 2026)
- Social Media Regulation Push – Recent jury verdicts finding Meta and YouTube liable for harms to young users are reigniting calls in Texas to rein in social media. Josh speaks with State Rep. Jared Patterson about his renewed push to ban minors from social platforms altogether, and the debate over whether that’s necessary protection or government overreach.
Texas Hemp Crackdown – A looming state ban on smokable, intoxicating hemp products is shaking the industry, with retailers warning of store closures and tens of thousands of potential job losses. Adam Schwager explains how new rules grew out of Governor Abbott’s veto of a broader ban, and why legal challenges appear inevitable.
Data Center Concerns Grow Across Texas – Communities statewide are pushing back against massive data center projects, raising alarms about water use, grid strain, and local control. Grace Gates reports on how lawmakers are responding, including new rules forcing large users to pay for power connections and bipartisan efforts to craft guardrails before development accelerates further. Will DuPree interviews State Rep. Erin Zwiener about her move to create a working group to address citizen concerns about data centers.
Border Wall ‘Mission Accomplished’ – State leaders say Texas is finished building its border wall after more than $3 billion and just over 80 miles constructed. Sandra Sanchez looks at what was built and what gaps remain. Also, we look at how new federal funding could shift the next phase of border construction — including potential impacts on wildlife preserves along the Rio Grande.
(Episode from March 29, 2026)
U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers seized methamphetamine valued at over $17 million at the Pharr International Bridge last week.
A road rage incident in Harris County has garnered attention.
Update: The Harris County District Attorney's office has officially accepted charges, and Precinct 4 constables are actively hunting him down.
— Desiree (@DesireeAmerica4) March 29, 2026
A Houston man pulled a machete on a woman, and the reason why is absolutely terrifying.
The victim was driving near Grant Road and… pic.twitter.com/2NoX5cA6X4
The search continues today for a man missing in Lake Lay Roberts in Lewisville.
A carnival ride malfunctioned in Livingston this weekend leaving two people injured.
Plans for a wall in Big Bend National Park prompted public protests and behind-the-scenes lobbying to sway the Trump administration to stop. (New York Times)
SPORTS
send the Horns off in style 🤘#HookEm pic.twitter.com/Qi0MyZetEr
— Texas Women's Basketball (@TexasWBB) March 30, 2026
NBA: Alperen Sengun paired 36 points with 13 rebounds to lead the Houston Rockets to a 134-102 victory over the host New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday. Sengun hit 5 of 7 threes, dished seven assists, recorded three steals and swatted three shots in an all-around performance. (Reuters)
MONSTER night from @alperennsengun in New Orleans 😈 pic.twitter.com/7xDg7I38hT
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) March 30, 2026
ON THE SCHEDULE
The Rockets are off tonight. Dallas and San Antonio both play at home.
STANDINGS
MLB: The first weekend of the 2026 baseball season is in the books. The Houston Astros split their four-game series with Los Angeles while the Texas Rangers took two of three in Philadelphia.
Isaac Paredes hit a tiebreaking two-RBI double with two outs in the eighth inning to help the Houston Astros to a 9-7 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday despite a disappointing major league debut from starter Tatsuya Imai. (Associated Press)
MacKenzie Gore struck out seven in his Texas debut, and Brandon Nimmo and Andrew McCutchen both homered to lead the Rangers to an 8-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE
NHL: Trevor Zegras wristed a sharp-angle shot past Casey DeSmith with 1:33 remaining in overtime, leading the hard-charging Philadelphia Flyers to a 2-1 victory over the slumping Dallas Stars on Sunday night. (Associated Press)
ON THE SCHEDULE
The Stars have tonight off and will be in Boston tomorrow night.
RACING: Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi extended his perfect start to the year by winning the United States Grand Prix in Austin on Sunday for his third consecutive win of the year and fifth straight dating back to last season.
Bezzecchi led all 20 laps at the Circuit of the Americas, where he crossed the line 2.036 seconds ahead of teammate Jorge Martin. Pedro Acosta, who finished third in Saturday’s sprint before a penalty dropped him to eighth, rounded out the podium. (Al Jazeeera)
In 1968, San Antonio hosted a global event that transformed the city forever — the legendary HemisFair ’68. Millions of visitors came to experience innovation, culture, and architecture from around the world. But many of its most fascinating features have since been forgotten.
This video explores 10 forgotten wonders of San Antonio’s World Fair, highlighting the pavilions, attractions, designs, and ideas that once captured global attention — but have largely disappeared from public memory.
